The New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox on October 2, 2025. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Game 3 between the Red Sox and Yankees is among the most anticipated Wild Card games in history, after the bitter rivals split two highly dramatic games to set up this do-or-die matchup. Connelly Early (2.33 ERA, 19 and 1/3 IP) will face off against Cam Schlittler (2.96 ERA, 73 IP), making this only the second time two rookie starters have faced off in a winner-take-all postseason game.
Find my MLB betting preview and Red Sox vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction
- Red Sox vs Yankees pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline +132 (FanDuel, Play to +125)
My Red Sox vs Yankees best bet is on the Boston Red Sox moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Yankees Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +132 | 7.5 -106o / -114u | +140 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -157 | 7.5 -106o / -114u | -167 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Connelly Early (BOS) | Stat | RHP Cam Schlittler (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 4-3 |
| 1.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.3 |
| 2.33 / 2.27 | ERA /xERA | 2.96 / 3.98 |
| 0.91 / 2.35 | FIP / xFIP | 3.74 / 3.77 |
| 1.09 | WHIP | 1.22 |
| 31.6% | K-BB% | 17.4% |
| 46.7% | GB% | 36.4% |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 112 |
| 108 | Location+ | 98 |
Nick Martin’s Red Sox vs Yankees Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: All Eyes on the Bullpen
Many of the Yankees' expected faults were on display in Game 1, as the Red Sox were able to win around the margins and steal a victory despite a dominant performance from Max Fried. Game 2 told a different story, as it was the Red Sox that let the Yankees off the hook with some fundamental miscues, while the Yankees played a relatively clean game from a base-running and fielding perspective.
There have been a few critical moments that ultimately decided the previous two nail-biters, and we easily could have seen a different result in either of the first two matchups. While Early vs Schlittler is far from a marquee pitching matchup, it still seems likely that both teams could struggle to blow this one open.
Early will certainly be feeling the nerves early in this matchup, as he will be making just his fifth MLB start on the road in an elimination game. We have seen starters able to handle comparable situations in the past, while others have faltered under the pressure.
At this point there is not much indication that suggests whether Early can thrive under this type of pressure or not, but he has had a highly impressive season, albeit in a small sample size of 19 and 1/3 innings. He holds an xERA of 2.27, an xFIP of 2.35, and a Pitching+ rating of 107.
Early will be on a very short leash in this matchup, and even if he is relatively effective, he may still only be asked to record 10-12 outs.
The Red Sox top relievers are in solid shape entering this matchup, and Garrett Whitlock may be the only noteworthy arm that is unavailable.
While Schlittler is far from a pushover, the Red Sox likely prefer their chances of finding success offensively in this matchup compared to previous two, which came against elite lefties in Fried and Carlos Rodón. The Red Sox have been drastically more effective versus right-handed pitching recently, as they rank 11th in baseball with a wRC+ of 104 versus righties over the last 30 days.
Dating back to the All-Star break, they also hold a wRC+ of 104 versus righties, and rank tenth in weighted on-base average.
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Will Bats Come Alive Against a Lefty?
Schlittler features a highly convincing underlying profile in his own right and is a more proven starter at the MLB level than Early, working 73 innings this season. In his 14 starts, Schlittler holds a 3.98 xERA and 3.77 xFIP, and a strikeout minus walk rate of 17.8%. He also holds a Stuff+ rating of 112 and a Pitching+ rating of 108.
It seems logical to imagine that Schlittler will receive a longer leash to pitch further into this game than Early, given the state of the Yankees bullpen and the fact that Schlittler is the more proven arm.
New York's high-powered offense put on a good display Thursday, managing four runs and ten hits, as well as a .293 xBA. While the Yankees had other scoring opportunities go by the wayside, it was Jazz Chisholm manufacturing a critical run in the bottom of the eighth with some elite base-running on the type of play that this current Yankee roster is not exactly known for.
The Yankees were the best team in the league versus left-handed pitching this season with a wRC+ of 121 versus lefties.
Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
While Schlittler is the more proven starter and is backed by a powerhouse offense, there still seems to be a solid case that this game is more marginal than oddsmakers expect, and it wouldn't surprise me to see another nail-biter that hinges on one or two critical moments.
With that in mind, the Red Sox start to look pretty interesting at +132. While it's not out of the question that Early could choke in this type of matchup, he has the stuff to continue offering highly effective results at the big league level, and could be capable of managing this moment.
After Early's exit we will see the Red Sox's high-quality bullpen enter the game, which should be capable of holding the Yankees to a reasonable total in this matchup. And while the Yankees bullpen projects as one of the better units in baseball, it feels quite hard to trust many of their big names right now, a sentiment that the majority of Yankee fans would probably agree with.
Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline +132 (FanDuel, Play to +125)
