The St. Louis Cardinals host the Boston Red Sox on April 11, 2026. First pitch from Busch Stadium is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on FOX.
The Red Sox are favored by -138 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Cardinals are +118 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Red Sox vs Cardinals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Red Sox vs Cardinals Prediction
- Red Sox vs Cardinals Pick: Over 7.5 (-122)
My Red Sox vs Cardinals best bet is Over 7.5 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Cardinals Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +122 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | -138 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -146 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | +118 |
- Red Sox vs Cardinals spread: Red Sox -1.5 (+122), Cardinals +1.5 (-146)
- Red Sox vs Cardinals over/under: 7.5 (-122o / +100u)
- Red Sox vs Cardinals moneyline: Red Sox -138, Cardinals +118
Red Sox vs Cardinals Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Ranger Suarez (BOS) | Stat | RHP Kyle Leahy (STL) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 1-1 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.0 |
| 8.64 / 8.54 | ERA / xERA | 5.40 / 7.26 |
| 6.15 / 4.25 | FIP / xFIP | 4.95 / 4.92 |
| 1.92 | WHIP | 1.80 |
| 5.3 | K-BB% | 0.0 |
| 43.3 | GB% | 54.1 |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 87 |
| 100 | Location+ | 109 |
Red Sox vs Cardinals Preview
Perhaps the Phillies knew something when they chose not to fight to retain the services of Ranger Suarez. He’s allowed four runs in each of his first two starts for the Red Sox (@HOU, SDP) with a 5.3 K-BB% and 7.8 SwStr%. He’s allowed two barrels in each start and has a 46.7 HardHit% that’s above his 43.3 GB%.
To illustrate why that’s a potential concern so early in the season, Suarez has a career ground-ball rate 17.8 points above his hard-hit rate.
Pitch modeling only gives us more evidence that he’s done poorly with a career worst 94 Pitching+.
Suarez keeps batters guessing, throwing five pitches between 12.6% and 27.8% of the time, similar to last year, but his sinker is the high end of that usage pattern, registering just 38 Pitching Bot and 81 Pitching+ overall grades in 2026.
On the other side, Kyle Leahy has transitioned from the bullpen with a 5.13 SIERA and .411 wOBA allowed (still lower than Suarez) through two starts, striking out just five of 47 batters (6.3 SwStr%) with just as many walks.
He’s allowed five barrels (13.5%) with a 54.1 HardHit% and little indication that he can succeed in this role with a 1.8 mph drop in velocity from last season.
The projected Boston lineup has a 109 wRC+ and .178 ISO vs RHP since last year.
A Cardinals projected lineup at 105 vs LHP doesn’t entirely register the overall 2026 192 wRC+ of Jordan Walker, who may be in the midst of a legitimate breakout after visiting Driveline this winter.
He’s taking more walks (10.2%), hitting the ball harder with eight barrels (26.7%) and an absurd 70% hard hit rate so far, generating more air contact with a career low 36.7 GB% by more than 10 points and showing better pitch selection with a career low 28 O-Swing% (33.2% career).
Additionally, while both teams have strong defenses, both also have a bullpen FIP exceeding 4.50. In fact, St Louis relievers have the third-worst FIP/xFIP/SIERA combo in the league so far (5.05/4.92/4.70).
These projected lineups also combined for +23 Base Running Runs last year.
The weather shouldn’t be much of a factor on Saturday night with a Friday night forecast in the low 60s and a light wind from left field.
Similar conditions have had a neutral effect on a park that’s been a perfectly neutral run scoring environment (100 Park Run Factor) over the last three years.
A slumping Roman Anthony was given the night off on Friday, but should find himself back in the lineup, still carrying a career 142 wRC+ vs RHP. This seems like a great breakout spot with LHBs owning a .337 wOBA and .358 against Leahy since last year.
You can still find it at 7.5 (-122) on FanDuel, but even if it increases, 8.0 is one of my favorite overs to play because you win at 4-4 and still have a good shot going to extras tied at three because of the ghost runner.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-122, FanDuel)
