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MLB Odds, Picks for Braves vs. Brewers: Monday’s Betting Value on Favorite

MLB Odds, Picks for Braves vs. Brewers: Monday’s Betting Value on Favorite article feature image

Mark Brown/Getty Images. Pictured: Rowdy Tellez

  • The Milwaukee Brewers are home favorites for the start of a series against the Atlanta Braves tonight.
  • Freddy Peralta takes the mound for Milwaukee opposed by Atlanta's Ian Anderson.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Braves vs. Brewers Odds

Braves Odds+115
Brewers Odds-140
Over/Under8 (+100 / -120)
Time7:40 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Atlanta Braves are the defending World Series champions, but that was then and this is now.

What have the Braves done for us lately? Well, Atlanta enters play Monday night three games below .500 with a 16-19 record, sitting third in the National League East division.

The Milwaukee Brewers — sizable favorites in this matchup at -135 with one of their better starting pitchers, Freddy Peralta, on the mound — are 22-13 on the season as they sit atop the National League Central division.

This series could be a playoff preview if the Braves make a playoff run the rest of the season, but who will get the job done in Game 1 of this series?

Braves Looking For Offense

This might not be the best matchup for the Braves’ offense. While Peralta has a 4.40 ERA in six starts this season, his FIP is 2.39 and his ERA last year was 2.81 in 27 starts.

Peralta is far from a welcome sight for a Braves offense that lost star first baseman Freddie Freeman this offseason and enters play Monday night tied for 14th in all of baseball in runs scored this season with 146.

One lineup note for the Braves is that superstar outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. has missed the last four games because of his groin. He had an MRI on Saturday that didn’t reveal anything serious, but still had the day off on Sunday.

It appears as though Acuna Jr. will avoid the injured list and be back in the lineup Monday, but his status is worth keeping an eye on in the lead up to this contest.

Brewers Should Hit Anderson

For Milwaukee, this should be a good matchup for its offense at home against Braves right-hander Ian Anderson.

Anderson is 3-1 with a 4.20 ERA after six starts, but his FIP (4.99) and xFIP (4.56) are both worse.

Diving into Anderson’s stats a little more, you’ll find his K% has decreased from 23% last year to 17% this year while his BB% has increased from 9% last year to 12% this year. The difference between his K% and BB% last year was 13% and now that’s down to 4%.

Anderson hasn’t had a a blow-up start since his first start of the season when he allowed five earned runs and left without completing the third inning, but he could be due for one here.

The Brewers aren’t an offense to be taken lightly. They’re fourth in all of baseball in runs scored this season with 171.

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Braves-Brewers Pick

I like the Brewers here. Milwaukee is in first place, playing at home in a matchup that should be beneficial for its offense. The Braves have struggled so far this season and could once again be without their superstar bat in Acuna.

I’m taking the Brewers moneyline at -135.

Pick: Brewers ML -135

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