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Braves vs. Mets Odds & Picks: Bet Atlanta Over New York (Aug. 4)

Braves vs. Mets Odds & Picks: Bet Atlanta Over New York (Aug. 4) article feature image
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Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Wright (Braves)

  • Two NL East rivals, the Braves and Mets, take the diamond for five games across five days, starting with Thursday's series opener.
  • Atlanta sends Kyle Wright to the hill while red-hot Carlos Carrasco opposes for New York.
  • Here's how Nick Shlain is betting this matchup.

Braves vs. Mets Odds

Braves Odds +106
Mets Odds -124
Over/Under 8.5 (-104 / -118)
Time 7:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The New York Mets still have the best record in the NL East — they lead Atlanta by four games in the loss column entering play Thursday.

The Mets will host the Braves for five games over the next four days, as the two teams are scheduled for a doubleheader on Saturday.

While the Braves were perhaps more active at the trade deadline — acquiring outfielder Robbie Grossman and reliever Raisel Iglesias — the Mets have also gotten a boost from the recent return of ace pitcher Jacob deGrom, who is scheduled to start the final game of this series on Sunday.

Atlanta will have to wait until September for the return of their second baseman Ozzie Albies.

It should be an interesting race the rest of the way, but ultimately, who will get the job done and take home the victory in this one?

Can Braves End Carrasco’s Hot Streak?

The Braves are ninth in all of baseball, averaging 4.63 runs per game on the road this season.

Carlos Carrasco has a 3.79 ERA and 4.14 xFIP, but his ERA improves to 3.30 when pitching at home this year. Carrasco has been strong in his recent sample of games, as he’s completed at least five innings and allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last five starts.

He also struck out at least five batters in four of those starts. His ERA for the month of July was 0.90, and he struck out 27 batters in 30 innings.

Carrasco isn’t going to keep up this stretch forever, though, and his 2.65 FIP in July suggests he’s pitched over his head recently. Carrasco allowed just one home run in July and has a 47% ground-ball percentage for the season. However, he’s still allowed a .168 ISO to left-handed batters.

Matt Olson and Michael Harris II should be his toughest outs, as each have ISOs above .250 against right-handed pitching this season.


How Mets Match Up vs. Wright?

The Mets are ninth in all of baseball, averaging 4.69 runs per game at home this season.

On the mound for the Braves will be Kyle Wright, who has a 2.93 ERA and 3.82 xFIP this season. Wright has already faced the Mets back in May, and while he ended up taking the loss in that game, he still posted a quality start, as he completed seven innings and allowed just three earned runs.

Wright has exceptional power prevention numbers against right-handed hitters, as he’s allowed just a .068 ISO to them this season.

He has allowed a .138 ISO to left-handed hitters, though. He’ll have to worry about two newly-acquired Mets in Daniel Vogelbach and Tyler Naquin, who are both left-handed and have ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching this season.

Braves-Mets Pick

While the Mets have been the better team this season and are playing at home (where they’re 31-17), the model I use actually favors the Braves slightly in this one.

Vegas has made the Mets a slight favorite, so of course, I believe there’s value on the Braves’ side at +100. But I wouldn’t push it further than that.

These two teams are evenly matched, but despite how well Carrasco pitched in July, I believe Wright is the better pitcher and gives the Braves the edge here.

Pick: Braves ML +100

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