MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Braves vs. Mets Betting Preview (June 23)

Braves vs. Mets Odds

The Atlanta Braves earned a 3-0 victory over the New York Mets on Tuesday behind a strong performance from starting pitcher Charlie Morton.

Offensively, the Braves managed just five hits, but had a big three-run home run from Dansby Swanson in the third inning that proved to be all the firepower they’d need to secure the victory.

Meanwhile, the Mets had only two hits on the day, one from catcher James McCann and the other off the bat of pitcher Jarad Eickhoff.

Can New York even the series in the final home game or will the Braves draw closer in the National League East standings with another big road triumph at Citi Field? Let's take a look at this contest and see where the betting value sits.

Wright Making Second Start of Career for Atlanta

Kyle Wright will make his second start of the season for the Braves. While he was able to limit the damage in his first outing in April, the advanced numbers suggest it should have been a whole lot worse. In 4 1/3 innings, he allowed two earned runs on three hits and struck out five batters.

That said, his 8.01 FIP was nearly four runs higher than his 4.15 ERA, an indicator that we'll likely see some negative regression in the near future.

While that single start is an extremely small sample size, Wright also struggled in previous MLB stints earlier in his career. In fact, over limited action in 2018-2020, Wright compiled an 8.83 FIP, 6.16 FIP and 5.90 FIP in each season, respectively.

However, the Mets have not been great this year against right-handed pitching, collectively hitting to just a .301 wOBA and 95 wRC+ in such situations so far. They’ve also struggled to score runs of-late, getting shut out in each of the last two games and averaging just 2.2 runs per game over their last 10 outings.

Given Wright’s history, it’s likely we’ll see the Braves' bullpen sooner rather than later in this game. So far this season, the relievers have been serviceable at best for manager Brian Snitker. Over 247 2/3 innings, the group has pitched to a 4.29 FIP, which is the 19th-best  mark in baseball.

Mets Sending Megill to Mound for First MLB Start

Tylor Megill will make his Major League debut for the Mets. Megill has been solid so far in Triple A this year, compiling a 4.07 FIP and striking out batters at an impressive 10.7 K/9 clip. He’s also been relatively successful at limiting the long ball, holding opposing hitters to just 1.26 HR/9 thus far.

Megill has had a steady climb in the Mets' minor league system, finding success at each level along the way. While New York's coaching staff would probably like to give him some more time to develop, he’s proven capable of making the jump from each professional level so far.

While the Braves have been strong against right-handed pitching with a .323 team wOBA, they’ve also been struggling at the plate recently, averaging just 1.6 runs per game over their last five outings.

Either way, it’s unlikely Mets manager Luis Rojas pushes him very far on debut. Eventually, he’ll look to turn to a bullpen that has been one of the better units in baseball this season with a 3.72 FIP thus far that's eighth best in baseball.

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Braves-Mets Pick

This game poses a rather difficult dilemma. You have two young pitchers on the mound, with one making his major-league debut and the other who has yet to even sniff success at the big-league level. If this scenario presented itself in a different game, we’d likely be looking for the bats to explode in this spot.

The problem is both of teams are having an extremely difficult time scoring runs. On one side, the Mets have been shut out in consecutive games and have been playing with a heavily depleted roster. Meanwhile, the Braves are averaging just 1.6 runs per game over their past five and have been dealing with a load of injuries of their own.

If I’m going to take a stab here, it will be on the under. It’s likely both managers will turn to their bullpens early, which will eliminate the risk we see with both starting pitchers. In that case, I trust each of these bullpens to limit damage against the current iteration of these lineups.

However, given the uncertainty, I’m limiting my action to just half a unit here. I’m looking to play it at the current total of under 9 runs as my top pick.

Pick: Under 9 (-110)