The Colorado Rockies host the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday, August 3. First pitch from Coors Field is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on COLR and MLB.TV.
The Rays enter as -156 favorites on the moneyline and are -1.5 (-110) on the run line. The Rockies come in as +144 underdogs on the moneyline and are +1.5 (-110) on the run line. The over/under sits at 11.5 total runs.
Find my MLB picks and Rays vs Rockies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Rays vs Rockies Prediction
- Rays vs Rockies Pick: Under 11.5 (-114) · Ian Seymour Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-151)
My Rays vs Rockies best bet is on both teams to go under the total and Colorado pitcher Ian Seymour to record more than 4.5 strikeouts. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Rockies Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 11.5 -105o / -115u | -156 |
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 11.5 -105o / -115u | +144 |
- Rays vs Rockies Moneyline: Rays -156, Rockies +144
- Rays vs Rockies Over/Under: 11.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Rays vs Rockies Run Line: Rays -1.5 (-110), Rockies +1.5 (-110)
Rays vs Rockies MLB Betting Preview
We have another Coors series here, as the first-place Rays head up the mountain for three games where they'll be heavily favored.
The Rays have already improved their roster, adding Freddy Peralta this weekend. They might not be done, but whatever they do won't change the lineup tonight.
They send Ian Seymour to the bump to take on Michael Lorenzen, who continues to take the ball every fifth game for the Rockies as they try to get through another grueling 162-game season.
Is Seymour suited to handle Coors Field? The elevation has its most serious impact on pitchers who rely heavily on movement. Seymour throws about 90- 91 MPH on the fastball and features a changeup as his best main pitch.
That's good news for his chances of handling the Rockies at Coors.
The Rays have limited his pitch counts a bit of late. He's thrown 61, 87 and 71 pitches in his last three outings after a three-game stretch where he averaged almost 90 pitches. So, they're easing off a little bit.
My projection is still well above five strikeouts for him as he takes on a lineup that strikes out quite a bit. It's not the same 27%+ K% Rockies lineup of previous years, but my projections like what it's seeing on Seymour in this one.
I was surprised that the Rays are only -170; I thought they'd be bigger favorites than that.
Lorenzen has been pretty much the same guy at home as he has been on the road.
- Home: 16% K%, 10% BB%, .354 xwOBA
- Road: 16% K%, 6% BB%, .357 xwOBA
The difference is the walk rate.
I don't see any big difference in the approach at home to make sense of that, but it's quite possible that he's just trying to avoid the center of the zone a little bit more at home given what can happen when you allow well-hit balls into play in Coors.
The Rays boast one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league, but they also do their fair share of walking with a projected 9% BB% on this lineup tonight.
So, I'd be looking at the walk line for Lorenzen. If you can get over 1.5 BBs around even-money, that would be a good bet. Lorenzen is projected for 3.6 strikeouts and 2.3 walks in this spot.
Rays vs Rockies Pick, Betting Analysis
I'm going to lean into the Seymour projection. A 5.6 strikeout projection clears the line by more than one strikeout, and that's always a nice spot for us.
The other thing my model is pointing to is the under 11.5.
I just don't see this Rays lineup as one that's likely to throw up 7 or more runs, and that's probably what it'll take to get this game to a dozen runs since we don't care much for the Rockies matchup with Seymour and a good Tampa Bay bullpen.
The under 11.5 is one of the best bets in my whole model tonight.
Pick: Under 11.5 (-114) · Ian Seymour Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-151)
