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Braves vs. Phillies MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Betting Value on Underdog Philadelphia (Monday, July 25)

Braves vs. Phillies MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Betting Value on Underdog Philadelphia (Monday, July 25) article feature image

Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Schwarber.

  • The Philadelphia Phillies take on the Atlanta Braves in a Monday night NL East showdown.
  • The Phillies enter as underdogs as Max Fried takes the mound for the Braves.
  • Check out Nick Shlain's full betting guide and top pick for this matchup below.

Braves vs. Phillies Odds

Braves Odds-180
Phillies Odds+155
Over/Under8.5 (-105 / -115)
Time7:05 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Things haven’t unfolded the way the Phillies likely envisioned before the season.

Philadelphia enters play Monday 9.5 games behind the Mets in the National League East, with the defending National League MVP, Bryce Harper, on the injured list and without the manager who started the year.

It could be worse for the Phillies, though, as they remain only one game behind St. Louis for the third Wild Card spot.

The season hasn’t gone perfectly for the Braves either, as the defending World champions find themselves 1.5 games behind the Mets in the NL East.

Who will get the job done and come away with the victory as these division rivals begin the series?

Braves Facing Injuries

While I mentioned that things haven’t gone exactly to plan for the Braves this year, a perfect example is the recent injury to Adam Duvall. The outfielder broke his wrist, will need surgery, and will miss the rest of the season.

The Braves are already missing second baseman Ozzie Albies, who’s out for the season with a foot injury.

However, Atlanta still has quite a bit of power in its lineup, as Ronald Acuna Jr., Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley, and William Contreras each own ISOs above .200 against left-handed pitching this season.

Phillies starter Ranger Suarez hasn’t allowed much power to right-handed batters this year with just a .157 ISO. While Suarez has a 4.07 ERA and 4.46 xFIP, his ERA at home sits at 5.15 this season. Atlanta is eighth in all of baseball, averaging 4.67 runs per game on the road this year.

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Phillies Set to Face Max Fried

The Phillies rank 11th in all of baseball, averaging 4.55 runs per game at home this season. They’ll have their hands full with Braves pitcher Max Fried, whose power prevention numbers have been outstanding this year. He’s allowed an ISO under .100 to both left- and right-handed hitters.

The Phillies still have some power without Bryce Harper, as Rhys Hoskins, Kyle Schwarber and Alec Bohm each have ISOs above .200 against left-handed pitching this season. Nick Castellanos also had a .308 ISO against left-handed pitching last season.

The Phillies are 3-4 against Atlanta and 24-23 at home this season.

Braves-Phillies Pick

Fried is the better pitcher in this matchup, which typically leads to that team serving as the best bet, but I actually believe there’s value on the Phillies here.

Given some of the Braves’ injuries and that the Phillies have home-field advantage, Philadelphia is being slightly underrated by Vegas. Fried has faced the Phillies already this season and had a good start by allowing two earned runs in six innings, but he didn’t factor into the decision.

I expect a repeat result here. I took the Phillies moneyline at +145.

Pick: Phillies ML +145

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