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Braves vs. Phillies MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Baseball Gods to Shift in Atlanta’s Favor? (Tuesday, July 26)

Braves vs. Phillies MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Baseball Gods to Shift in Atlanta’s Favor? (Tuesday, July 26) article feature image
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Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Spencer Strider (Braves)

  • After the Phillies won game one of the series, the Braves look for revenge on their NL East counterparts on Tuesday.
  • Atlanta sends Spencer Strider to the hill while Philadelphia turns to Aaron Nola.
  • Jules Posner breaks down the matchup and offers up a best bet.

Braves vs. Phillies Odds

Braves Odds -120
Phillies Odds +100
Over/Under 7.5
Time 7:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Philadelphia Phillies took the first game of their three-game series against the Atlanta Braves in an affair that had a serious case of the Mondays.

Bryson Stott played the unlikely hero, committing left-on-left crime not once, but twice en route to a 6-4 Phillies victory. His 2nd inning game-tying double took a hop worthy of a top-shelf IPA and then, he tagged A.J. Minter for a three-run home run in the bottom of the 8th.

The Braves turn to Spencer Strider to bring them back to even in the series, while Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies.

Strider to Bounce Back for Braves?

After Monday night, it’s hard to imagine the Braves will experience that improbable of a loss two nights in a row.

However, stranger things have happened I suppose.

Strider went into the All-Star break on a relatively low note, getting knocked around by the Nationals for five runs over 4 2/3 innings. The All-Star break may have come at a perfect time for Strider, as the extra day of rest and a second-half playoff push might be what he needs to get back on track.

On the other side of the ball, the Braves’ offense hasn’t been as great against RHP on the road as you would expect. In fact, they haven’t been statistically great. Over the past three weeks, they’ve posted a 85 wRC+ on the road against RHP.


Phillies Playing Solid Without Harper

Nola gets the home start for the Phillies, and contrary to his career numbers, Nola hasn’t been as good at home in 2022.

Over 56 1/3 innings at home, Nola has posted a 4.15 ERA, 3.75 FIP and 3.20 xFIP. Those are respectable numbers, but not typical of the veteran pitcher. His xFIP is something to note because it indicates he should be due for some positive regression at home.

Surprisingly, the Phillies have done a great job of staying afloat without Bryce Harper. Over the past few weeks, they’ve had the ninth-best team wRC+ against RHP at home.

Additionally, their bullpen seems to have stabilized, as well. The reshuffling of roles in the ‘pen — and better overall utilization — seems to have benefitted the group, and they’ve been pretty solid since the departure of Joe Girardi.

Braves-Phillies Pick

Even though the Phillies pulled off the upset on Monday night, a statistical outlier and a weird hop helped them to victory.

The Braves did score their first runs on an error, but the baseball gods were not on their side Monday night.

This game is a real coin flip, but Strider has been dominant for stretches, and perhaps his slip up before the All-Star break was just that.

Considering this game is more of a coin flip, the Braves moneyline actually looks like a decent value and a good play.

If this becomes a bullpen game, the Braves still have the edge there, and they have enough offensive firepower to get back in the win column.

The Braves moneyline is at -120 and should be played to -125.

Pick: Braves ML

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