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Wednesday MLB Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions for Braves vs. Phillies: Will Philadelphia Steal This NL East Series?

Wednesday MLB Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions for Braves vs. Phillies: Will Philadelphia Steal This NL East Series? article feature image
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Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Gibson (Phillies)

  • The Braves and Phillies square off in the final game of this three-game NL East set.
  • Two veterans take the mound with Charlie Morton getting the start for the Braves and Kyle Gibson opposing him.
  • Jules Posner dives into the matchup and explains why taking the underdog is the smart move.

Braves vs. Phillies Odds

Braves Odds -145
Phillies Odds +125
Over/Under 8.5
Time 12:35 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds updated as of Wednesday morning via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Atlanta Braves drew even in their series with the Philadelphia Phillies thanks to a 6-3 victory Tuesday night. Now their sights are set on a series victory before they head back to Atlanta to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Philadelphia Phillies look to stay afloat in the NL Wild Card race, as they turn to Kyle Gibson to help them clinch the series victory.

Charlie Morton makes the start for the Braves in a battle of two craft veterans.

Braves Need Their Offense to Step Up on Road

The narrative around the Braves generally centers around their excellent offensive players. However, they have struggled recently against RHP on the road. Over the past couple of weeks, the Braves have only posted an 83 team wRC+ on the road against RHP, which is 19th in MLB.

Morton has had a pretty up-and-down season for the Braves, and it’s really hard to know what you’re going to get from him from start to start.

In 2022, Morton is posting a 4.59 ERA with a 4.13 FIP and a 4.08 xFIP. Essentially, he is who he is on the road.

However, Morton is backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball. Although the unit has struggled in this series, the numbers are still overwhelmingly strong for the Braves’ pen.

If Morton were to run into trouble, he does have a safety net.


Can Phillies’ Gibson Turn His Poor Form Around?

The Phillies have not lit the world on fire offensively of late, but they still have created enough offense to be around league average against RHP at home. With an inconsistent Morton on the mound, the Phils may have a puncher’s chance of snagging the series victory.

The main issue heading into Wednesday’s matchup is that Gibson went from being pretty solid at home in 2022 to pretty bad over the course of a month.

From the start of the season through May, Gibson posted a 2.37 ERA with a 3.06 FIP and a 2.96 xFIP at home. From June on, Gibson has posted a 7.36 ERA with a 7.02 FIP and a 5.67 xFIP at home. The latter is much worse than the former. Can you tell?

Braves-Phillies Pick

Monday’s win seemed to give the Phillies the confidence that they can hang with the Braves. With Morton on the mound, the Phillies may have their shot to steal the series victory from the favorite.

Gibson is a mystery, but perhaps the All-Star break is what he needed to get back on track.

The Phillies opened around +125, and in a game that feels like it could be a coin flip, look for Gibson to bounce back and help the Phillies stay alive in the NL Wild Card race.

As long as they’re in plus money, that’s the move.

Pick: Phillies ML

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