Saturday MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Sept. 26)

Brewers vs. Cardinals Odds

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After splitting a doubleheader with the Cardinals on Friday, the Brewers still find themselves on the outside looking in at the postseason. Milwaukee now needs to win out and needs some help. They'll send Brandon Woodruff to the mound Saturday with the hope he can keep their playoff chances alive.

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee's lineup has been below average all season, checking in with a .313 wOBA and 92 wEC+. They've also been struggling over the past two weeks, too, accumulating a .293 wOBA and 80 wRC+.

Most of the Brewers' struggles this season have come against righties, as they rank 27th in MLB with a .299 wOBA. They'll have a tough matchup against Adam Wainwright, who held their offense in check the last time these two teams faced off.

Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP  is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.

BaseRuns is a formula designed to estimate how many runs a team would be expected to score (or allow) given their underlying offensive (or defensive) performance. In other words, BaseRuns is a context-neutral run estimator used to evaluate teams. Major League average for an individual batter per game is 0.50 BaseRuns and a for a pitcher its 0.52 BaseRuns per inning.

Brewers Projected Starter 

Brandon Woodruff, RHP

Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Woodruff has been fantastic this season, posting a 3.43 ERA and a 3.41 xFIP. He's been a strikeout machine with a 11.10 K/9 rate and has mainly done it with his fastball.

Woodruff has an elite-level fastball that sits just above 96 mph on average and can top out at 100 mph. He's been keeping hitters at bay, allowing a .175 average and producing a 33.5% whiff rate. Woodruff's entire arsenal of pitches has been fantastic this year, but his slider has been his best pitch. It's quite literally been un-hittable, as he has allowed only two hits on 126 sliders and produced a 45.8% whiff rate.

In his last start against St. Louis 10 days ago, Woodruff didn't have his best stuff, allowing four runs on seven hits in seven innings of work. It'll be interesting to see if the Cardinals offense can get to him again on Saturday.

St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis' offense has been right around average all season, but they've been hitting the ball much better at Busch Stadium than on the road.

The Cardinals offense has accumulated a .330 wOBA and 112 wRC+ at home this season, which ranks in the top half of MLB. Paul Goldschmidt leads St. Louis' offense this season with a .392 wOBA. The rest of the Cardinals lineup hasn't lived up to expectations this year, but I think they'll be able to find success against Woodruff again on Saturday.

Cardinals Projected Starter

Adam Wainwright, RHP

Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Even at age 39, Wainwright's curveball continues to baffle hitters. He throws it more often than any other pitch, and it's only allowed a .190 average to opponents this season. Wainwright also has a decent sinker and cutter to keep hitters off balance. So far this season his sinker has been on point, allowing only .255 to opposing hitters. His cutter, on the other hand, has been his Achilles heel, allowing a .330 average. The good news is the Brewers have been the 29th-best team against cutters this year.

With a playoff spot on the line, I think Wainwright should be able to shut down the Brewers' struggling offense on Saturday.

Projections and Pick

Both lineups have been struggling, so this game will likely be a pitchers' duel, and the Brewers offense always gives me a lot of pause when facing right-handed pitchers — even if their opponent is a 39-year-old Adam Wainwright. Based on my projections, I have some value on St. Louis for the first five innings, so I am going to back Wainwright at +110 (DraftKings). I also would play it up to -105.

The Pick: Cardinals First Five Innings +110

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