The Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres on July 3, 2026. First pitch from UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet LA.
The Dodgers are favored by -205 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Padres are +205 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Padres vs Dodgers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction
- Padres vs Dodgers Pick: Dodgers -1.5
My Padres vs Dodgers best bet is on the Dodgers to cover the run line. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Dodgers Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -104 | 7.5 -128o / 104u | +205 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 7.5 -128o / 104u | -250 |
- Padres vs Dodgers moneyline: Padres +205, Dodgers -250
- Padres vs Dodgers over/under: 7.5 (-128o / +104u)
- Padres vs Dodgers spread: Padres +1.5 (-104), Dodgers -1.5 (-115)
Padres vs Dodgers Polymarket MLB Odds
Padres vs Dodgers Probable Pitchers
| Michael King (RHP, SD) | Stat | Shohei Ohtani (RHP, LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-7 | W-L | 8-2 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.8 |
| 3.55 / 4.76 | ERA / xERA | 1.58 / 2.68 |
| 4.20 / 4.39 | FIP / xFIP | 2.57 / 3.33 |
| 11.1% | K-BB% | 19.8% |
| 45.9% | GB% | 50.8% |
| .253 | BABIP | .232 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 114 |
| 100 | Location+ | 98 |
Padres vs Dodgers MLB Betting Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
It hasn't been a Michael King-type season for Michael King, but he'll get another shot at the Dodgers tonight, a week after his rocky performance.
On that day, King allowed four runs over 4 1/3 innings, walking four to go along with five strikeouts. He had the benefit of pitching at home and did limit the damage on contact with just three hits against him, but the walks were once again a big issue. King finished June with 10 walks in 28 1/3 innings, and now owns a poor 9.8% walk rate this year.
Heading up against a patient team like the Dodgers, this is a big concern. Fortunately, this Dodgers team hasn't done quite the same amount of damage against ground-ball pitchers, and King is a newfound ground-ball pitcher.
He went from a 39.1% grounder rate in 2025 to 47% this year — three points higher than the league average. Against these launch angle avoiders, the Dodgers are ranked eighth in baseball with a .721 OPS — and sit second with an .835 OPS versus fly-ballers.
It's hard to say the walks won't persist given they've been an issue all year — and King's walked three or more in three of his last four. That would seem to be the major dilemma; on contact things should be relatively comfy.
The threat of the home run is gone for King with all the ground balls, and while that's come at the expense of strikeouts, it's helped him maintain a more consistent profile.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview
The Dodgers will deploy Shohei Ohtani on the hill for the first time in nine days. Prior to the extended rest, he allowed a total of 11 runs — two unearned — in 18 2/3 innings, due to a barrage of hits. Ohtani gave up just 11 hits in the month of May across 25 innings, but gave up 20 in 24 2/3 innings last month.
It was quite the change, seeing as Ohtani owned a .190 Expected Batting Average in May and a .233 in June. He has leapt to points in ground-ball rate all the way up to 51.8%, clearing the league average of 44.2% by a wide margin. This has led to the increase in hits, though Ohtani's Pull Air% is down as a result and he's given up just three home runs.
The right-hander did see a slight improvement in his walk rate, which is good, and we know he's keeping the ball out of danger by pitching to so many ground balls.
Unfortunately, even with the ground balls — and a decline in hard-hit rate, Ohtani struggled last month. You'd figure this should be a good strategy; however, with the Dodgers' infield ranked third in Outs Above Average, maybe all that was needed was a quick reset.
Whatever the reason for the rocky outings, we're looking at a guy who's sacrificed strikeouts for ground balls, just like King, and he's still trying to find his footing somewhat as a new kind of pitcher.
Padres vs Dodgers Pick, Betting Analysis
The Padres are the worst team in baseball against ground-ball pitchers, running a .595 OPS. Against fly-ballers, they're ranked 18th.
Now, they're hitting well of late with a 127 wRC+ over the last two weeks, but it's been largely due to their ability to hit for power (.190 ISO) and walk (10.7% BB%). Ohtani's shored up things in the power department, and he hasn't stood as a massive liability in the walks column.
As for the Dodgers, they also don't really like facing ground-ballers, but perhaps that will change as they take on a new kind of look. The Dodgers have a surprisingly low .173 ISO in the last two weeks, yet behind a 10.3% walk rate and .296 batting average have managed to rank third in wRC+ over that span.
You have to like the Dodgers' chances here with King falling victim to hit parades and walks — two things the Dodgers have enjoyed in recent games. The Padres also can't be trusted against a ground-baller, and Ohtani has been operating in the extreme there.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-115)
