MLB Odds & Picks for Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks: Why St. Louis Should Cruise in Arizona

MLB Odds & Picks for Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks: Why St. Louis Should Cruise in Arizona article feature image

Scott Kane/Getty Images. Pictured: Yadier Molina and Tommy Edman

  • The Cardinals are huge road favorites tonight against the Diamondbacks.
  • Miles Mikolas will take the mound for St. Louis, while Arizona will send out rookie Tommy Henry.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks Odds

Cardinals Odds-186
Diamondbacks Odds+155
Over/Under8.5 (-121 / +100)
Time9:40 p.m. ET
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Cardinals are on a heater right now and looking to win a fifth straight after sweeping the Rockies. Next up will be the Diamondbacks, who have been respectable lately at the plate but could be up against a juggernaut here in St. Louis.

With a potentially lopsided pitching matchup on the cards, where do we go here in Arizona? Let's get into this one.

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Cardinals' Offense Crushing

It's another start for Miles Mikolas, and another chance for the righty to solidify what's been an excellent bounce-back season at the age of 33.

There's a lot more to Mikolas than his expected ERA of 3.93. He continues to be one of the best in the game of commanding the zone and pitching to contact with a 4.5% walk rate in the top 6% of the league.

His ground ball rate is a shade lower than his career average of 45.6%, but it's still played just fine. He's avoided barrels (6.9%) and hard-hit balls (36.7%) for the most part and has done well to earn his 3.44 ERA.

The real story here is the Cardinals' offense, which statistically has been the best in baseball over the last two weeks. They've hit 18 homers during that time, walked at a 9.9% clip and struck out in just 18.9% of plate appearances.

To make matters worse here for Arizona, they're the best team in baseball against lefties with a 128 wRC+.

Diamondbacks Hopeful With Henry

The Diamondbacks will be starting a young man by the name of Tommy Henry, who has pitched three times at the major-league level to somewhat decent results.

The 25-year-old lefty out of Michigan owns a 4.15 ERA in 17 1/3 innings this season, relying on ground ball outs. He's had issues with walks and strikeouts, but his peripherals are not all that bad. In fact, his .317 xwOBA on contact checks in way under league average.

While Henry did struggle in Double-A last season, he seemed to figure things out this season in Triple-A. In 20 starts, he pitched to a 3.83 ERA  in 108 innings, allowing just 11 homers and 100 strikeouts.

Those numbers are nothing to bat an eye at, though his 3.67 walks per nine would indicate his lack of command is not really a fluke.

Offensively, the Snakes have been surprisingly effective. They've ranked 13th in wRC+ over the last two weeks with an incredibly low 15.8% strikeout rate. Their ISO is pretty tame at .139 but their 37% hard-hit rate is above league average during that time.

Cardinals-Diamondbacks Pick

The Cardinals have been too hot at the plate, and they've been too good against left-handers. Their power is going to be a serious problem for an inexperienced lefty who tries to pitch to contact without much velocity, and the walks are gong to make life even tougher.

Mikolas should shove here against a team which has been average at best when it comes to doing actual damage when making contact. It's not going to be enough here just getting a bat on the ball against one of the more skilled players in pitching to contact.

I'm going to lay it down with the run line here.

Pick: Cardinals -1.5 (-110)

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