Cardinals vs. Mets Odds, Pick, Prediction: Favored New York Still Has Betting Value (Tuesday, September 14)

Cardinals vs. Mets Odds, Pick, Prediction: Favored New York Still Has Betting Value (Tuesday, September 14) article feature image
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Mike Stobe/Getty Images. Pictured: Marcus Stroman

  • The Cardinals face the Mets as underdogs on Tuesday night in Queens.
  • Jake Woodford will start for St. Louis opposite established veteran Marcus Stroman.
  • Mike Vitanza breaks down the matchup and delivers his pick below.

Cardinals vs. Mets Odds

Cardinals Odds +132
Mets Odds -152
Over/Under 8.5
Time 7:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via SugarHouse. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The St. Louis Cardinals took the first game of this series on the road against the New York Mets by the score of 7-0 on Monday night.

Following the loss, the Mets (72-73) find themselves in third place in the NL East and just 3.5 games out of the NL Wild Card race, while the Cardinals (74-69) are now just a half-game behind the Cincinnati Reds in that same race.

With their playoff chances fading with every loss, can we count on the Mets to take care of business at home with Marcus Stroman on the mound?

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Can Jake Woodford Turn It Around?

Second-year pitcher Jake Woodford will take the hill for the Cardinals for just his fifth start of the season at the big-league level. To date, he hasn’t seen much success. Over 48 1/3 innings, Woodford has compiled a 2-3 record, 5.00 FIP, and has been striking out opposing batters at a 7.45 clip.

While his 6.1% Barrel rate so far does give some reason for hope that he can bring those numbers down, he’s still allowing a 41.9% Hard Hit rate (per Statcast), a number that will have to tumble down if he wants to remain a member of the Cardinals rotation.

Tonight, he takes on a Mets team that has been just average so far this season against right-handed pitching, collectively hitting a .309 wOBA and 97 wRC+. They have been hot offensively of late, however, averaging 5.8 runs per game over their last five games.

When Woodford exits, manager Mike Shildt will turn the ball over to a bullpen that has been solid so far this season. Over 509 2/3 innings, they’ve combined for a 4.06 FIP, 9th-best in all of baseball.

Is Stroman’s Success for Real?

Stroman will get the nod for the Mets at home and will look to build on an impressive resume in his second season in New York. Over 30 starts, Stroman has collected a 9-12 record, 2.87 ERA and an impressive 0.77 HR/9 average. He’s also retiring batters at a 7.90 K/9 clip, the highest of his career thus far.

While his 2.87 ERA is impressive, there is some reason for concern. His 4.17 xERA is 1.3 runs higher, indicating that there may be some negative regression in his future. When we dive deeper, we see that Stroman has allowed a sky-high 42% Hard Hit rate thus far as well, another sign that he’s been quite lucky to have retained the numbers he has up until this point in the season.

His matchup tonight, however, is a good one. It comes against a Cardinals team that has struggled this season against righties with just a .299 wOBA thus far, the 8th-worst mark amongst all teams.

Cardinals-Mets Pick

While signs do point to negative regression for Stroman in the near future, I don’t expect that to occur tonight against the Cardinals. Offensively, St. Louis has struggled overall on the season against righties and Stroman, despite his flaws, continues to pitch relatively well for the Mets.

On the other side, the Mets will face off against a pitcher in Woodson that has struggled mightily this season at the big-league level. Not only is he allowing opposing teams to score at an above-average level, but his lofty hard-hit rate is also only going to continue to exasperate those issues. Further, it will not make things any easier against a scorching Mets offense, who outside of being shut out by a dominant Adam Wainwright last night, have been one of the hottest offenses in baseball over the past week.

The Mets currently sit between -152 and -170 on the moneyline at most books, and I like it at any number better than -160.

Pick: Mets -160 or better

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