Cardinals vs. Phillies MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: A Same-Game Parlay to Bet for Sunday Night Baseball (July 3)

Cardinals vs. Phillies MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: A Same-Game Parlay to Bet for Sunday Night Baseball (July 3) article feature image

Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images Pictured: Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals)

Cardinals vs. Phillies Odds

Cardinals Odds+130
Phillies Odds-154
Over/Under7.5 (-120/-102)
Time7:08 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Sunday night is the third and final game of this series, as the NL East's Philadelphia Phillies host the NL Central's St. Louis Cardinals. Each team has won one game in this series, and they face off in the rubber match on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball.

Below, I will walk through a few picks that we will parlay together for a higher payout. When creating a “same-game parlay,” my approach is all-or-nothing.

While that statement is sort of like “the sky is blue,” let me explain. In my opinion, it's essential that we find plays that have a strong correlation with each other, as we do not get anything from coming close in a parlay.

If we have multiple plays that have a strong correlation with each other, then we could swing and miss on all of them, and that’s okay. There's absolutely no difference between going 0/3 or 2/3 on a parlay.

That being said, my goal in creating these parlays is to grab plays that increase the probability of the other plays hitting. For example, if I bet on a bunch of players on one team to generate runs, then it's more likely that their team would also win that game.

Following this mold, I have four plays below for Sunday Night Baseball between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Parlay (+529):

  • St. Louis Cardinals ML (+130)
  • Paul Goldschmidt to Record a Run (+115)
  • Nolan Arenado to Record an RBI (+135)
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Same-Game Parlay: Cardinals vs. Phillies

St. Louis Cardinals ML (+130)

We are starting off this parlay with a side bet, as we're backing the St. Louis Cardinals on the road. Veteran right-hander Adam Wainwright is slated to take the mound for St. Louis, and he's proven that he still has the stuff this season.

Through 15 starts this season, Wainwright is 6-5 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Against the Phillies last season, Wainwright boasted a 2.00 ERA and 0.67 WHIP.

Following Wainwright is a solid bullpen. Since June 1, the Cardinals' relief pitching ranks 12th in BA, eighth in SLG and 10th in wOBA.

This pitching staff could also get some solid run support, as the Cardinals are set to face right-hander Zack Wheeler. There's no denying how great Wheeler has been this season, but the Cardinals have been hitting right handers well recently.

When facing right handers, the Cardinals rank ninth in the league in BA, ninth in SLG, 10th in OPS and 10th in wOBA. Wheeler has not looked as sharp in his last two starts, as he allowed five earned runs and 12 hits over 10 2/3 innings pitched.

The Phillies lost each of those two outings. This game is a coin-flip to me, so I believe we're getting good odds with Wainwright and the Cardinals as underdogs on primetime.

Paul Goldschmidt to Record a Run (+115)

If the Cardinals are to win this game, they obviously have to get at least one run across the plate.

There's no better candidate for this task than Paul Goldschmidt.

Goldschmidt has been the heartbeat of this St. Louis offense all season, which is proven by the fact that he has the shortest odds to win National League MVP. Through 76 games this season, Goldschmidt boasts an absurd .346 BA, .633 SLG and 1.061 OPS.

I expect this outstanding play to continue in this matchup. Through 19 career plate appearances against Wheeler, Goldschmidt boasts a .323 xBA, .465 xSLG and .375 xwOBA.

In each of the first two games of this series, Goldschmidt crossed the plate twice. In fact, Goldschmidt has at least one run in seven of his last 10 games.

Nolan Arenado to Record an RBI (+135)

If Goldschmidt is to cross the plate, the best bet to hit him in is the guy who hits directly behind him in the batting order.

Nolan Arenado has been on fire in this series, as he's gone 6-for-8 with three homers and six RBI through the first two matchups.

Goldschmidt has been the run scored in every single one of those RBI (excluding the three RBI that Arenado pushed himself across the plate for with the long ball). Like Goldschmidt, Arenado has had an amazing season for St. Louis, as he boasts a .291 BA, .543 SLG and .896 OPS.

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