The Atlanta Braves host the Chicago Cubs on May 12, 2026. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on TBS.
The Braves are favored by -124 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Cubs are +106 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Cubs vs Braves prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cubs vs Braves Prediction
- Cubs vs Braves Pick: Cubs Moneyline (+106; play to +100)
My Cubs vs Braves best bet is on Chicago to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Braves Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 9 -105o / -115u | +106 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 9 -105o / -115u | -124 |
- Cubs vs Braves moneyline: Cubs +106, Braves -124
- Cubs vs Braves over/under: 9 (-105o / -115u)
- Cubs vs Braves spread: Cubs +1.5 (-192), Braves -1.5 (+158)
Cubs vs Braves Probable Pitchers
| RHP Colin Rea (CHC) | Stat | RHP Grant Holmes (ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 4.03/4.49 | ERA / xERA | 4.34/4.26 |
| 3.67/3.59 | FIP / xFIP | 5.02/4.58 |
| 13.9% | K-BB% | 7.5% |
| 52.1% | GB% | 44.2% |
| .316 | BABIP | .241 |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 90 |
| 101 | Location+ | 98 |
Cubs vs Braves MLB Betting Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
On the one hand, it says something positive about Colin Rea that he’s remained in the league for over a decade and one of the best teams in the league still trusts him to make regular starts.
On the other hand, he’s only started 108 major league games (644 innings) and it usually takes a couple of injuries for Rea’s name to surface. He’s never really anybody’s initial plan.
A career 4.39 ERA accompanies estimators ranging from a 4.35 xFIP to a 4.70 xERA.
Some of the contact neutral estimators suggest he’s been better than that this year with a 13.9 K-BB% that ties for his highest mark for any season in which he’s thrown more than 30 innings.
Only four of 10 barrels leaving the park explain the difference between a 3.67 FIP and 4.50 xERA.
In fact, outside of pitch modeling (4.16 Bot ERA, 94 Pitching+), all of Rea’s remaining indictors range from 3.56 (dERA) to 3.64 (SIERA).
With his 52.1 GB% a career high, Rea may be pitching the best baseball of his career less than two months before turning 36 years old.
Aside from throwing his fastball (93.7 mph, 49 PitchingBot grade, 85 Pitching+) 40% of the time, Rea has thrown another six different pitches between six and 19% of the time. He has a lot of different looks to give an Atlanta offense that’s near the top of the league against almost all of those pitches this year.
The Braves boast a 121 wRC+ at home this season and 122 vs RHP with the projected lineup for Tuesday at a much lesser 102 wRC+ average against RHP since last season and just a 98 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall.
It’s a tale of two halves:
Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson and Michael Harris all exceed a 135 wRC+ over the last month.
Mauricio Dubon, Austin Riley, Mike Yastrzemski and Sean Murphy all fall below 85 during the same span.
Ha-Seong Kim has been omitted since he’s just making his season debut.
Rea’s biggest issue with this Atlanta lineup should be fastballs. They’ve been the best offenses in the league against heaters (0.95 wFA/C) and Drake Baldwin is a top 10 bat against fastballs (1.96 wFA/C) in his time in the league, though Matt Olson may match up with Rea’s entire arsenal better than any other Brave.
It fits and is somewhat alarming that LHBs have a .361 wOBA against Rea since last season (.355 xwOBA) and that mark remains at a lofty .346 in 2026.
Rea has been fine at holding base runners this year (1 Net Base Prevented), as they’ve only attempted to steal on 0.8% of opportunities against him.
Carson Kelly has thrown out just three of 20 runners (-1 Catchers CS Above Average), while Miguel Amaya has cut down as many in just 12 attempts (0 CSAA).
Austin Riley is the only projected Brave to have accumulated a Base Running Run so far this year. Jorge Mateo (four) is the only player on the active Atlanta roster to have more stolen bases than Riley’s three this year.
At both 15 Runs Prevented and 18 Outs Above Average, the Cubs are the top defense in the league.
The projected defense has already accumulated 21 Fielding Run Value, led by PCA’s nine (MLB best) and Nico Hoerner’s six. Only Moises Ballesteros (-1 FRV), who usually DH’s, and Kelly (-1) are below average.
Maybe it’s not such a surprise that Rea’s results have been half a run better than his xERA.
The Chicago bullpen is still not at full strength, though they did recently welcome back closer Daniel Palencia from the IL.
Despite their 3.58 ERA over the last month, Cubs bullpen estimators (4.15 FIP/4.17 xFIP/3.97 SIERA) fall towards the bottom half of the league.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview
Grant Holmes was scratched from his last start in favor of Martin Perez with the rumor being that he was headed for the bullpen. He hasn’t pitched since May 1st at Coors and there’s been no word of any injury, yet here he is listed as the Atlanta starter again.
While his 4.34 ERA matches a 4.35 xERA, remaining estimators all above four and a half (including a 4.75 Bot ERA, 91 Pitching+) support questioning his future in the rotation.
Aside from posting a 5.3 BB% in 2024, walks have been a problem each of the last two seasons (11% 2025, 10.6% 2026), which is an even larger issue as his strikeout rate has fallen from 25% to 18.1% this year.
It’s not that Holmes can’t miss bats anymore. His 10.2 SwStr% at Coors was his lowest mark of the season and his 12.8 SwStr% this season is just 0.2 points below last year and well above league average. Batters are making more contact in the zone against him this year though (85.2% to 89.4%).
Fastball/slider 75% of the time, grades on the former offering have improved this season (46 PB, 87 P+ to 50, 99), while the latter have fallen (53, 103 to 46, 86), as Holmes’ overall Zone rate has dropped from 48.5% to 44.1%.
That’s not necessarily a bad thing in and of itself. His chase rate is up from 28.7% to 32.6% too.
At just 1.42 K/SwStr, he’s surely due to positively regress closer to last year’s strikeout rate, as his BABIP also regresses from .241 back closer to last year’s .288. The other big difference is his 78.6 LOB% from 2025 dropping closer to league average at 73.9% this year.
What does this mean for him going forward? Well, it’s hard to tell since his ERA already matches his xERA, but is well below other indicators we expect to improve with the strikeout rate. Maybe he’ll remain exactly what he is.
While the Cubs have a 108 wRC+ on the road and 114 vs RHP, their projected lineup has a 118 wRC+ vs RHP since last season (.191 ISO) and a 129 wRC+ L30 days overall.
No Chicago regular against RHP is below a 97 wRC+ over the last month with only Dansby Swanson (90) below a 96 wRC+ vs RHP since last year.
The Cubs are also a top three offense against sliders (0.64 wSL/C) and more middle of the league against fastballs (0.19 wFA/C), so don’t be surprised if that’s how Holmes formulates his game plan for Tuesday.
At two Net Bases Prevented, Holmes is near the top of the league. Nobody has even attempted to steal against him yet. However, Drake Baldwin has caught just one of 13 runners and is near the bottom of the league at -2 Catcher’s CS Above Average, while Sean Murphy is just getting his season behind the plate under way.
Horner (1 BRR), PCA (2) and Swanson (1) are the top Chicago base runners and are the only three Cubs with more than two stolen bases this year. It’ll be interesting to see if Hoerner (8 SB) or PCA (9) attempt the first stolen base against Grant Holmes this year.
Defensively, the Braves (9 RP, 11 OAA) aren’t too far behind the Cubs, though the projected lineup’s 11 FRV is 10 runs behind their opponents.
Atlanta is strong up the middle with Riley (-2 FRV), Baldwin (-1) and Murphy (-1) their below average gloves and one of the latter two will be the DH if both remain in the lineup.
The Braves have also returned their closer, Raisel Iglesias, from the IL recently and they’re close to 100% with one of the top bullpens in the league…on paper.
To be honest, their L30 day estimators (4.16 FIP/3.93 xFIP/3.56 SIERA) are more middle of the league and not too far outside the top third, much better than their 4.35 ERA. The 13 Home Runs allowed by the Atlanta relief corps over the last month is tied for 7th most in the majors during that span.
Cubs vs Braves Pick, Betting Analysis
Statcast deems Truist Park a perfectly neutral run environment (100 PRF) and also neutral to LH power (100 PHRF), while slightly suppressing RH power (93).
While things could change as Holmes makes adjustments leading to positive regression in his strikeout rate, his walk issues have me favoring Rea just a bit here, especially considering the 11 day layoff could shorten this particular outing for Holmes more than usual.
A guy who was supposedly moving to the bullpen just a few days ago isn’t likely to have a long leash to pitch through too much trouble.
These are two of the best offenses in the league this year, but at full strength, the Cubs are better than Atlanta with Acuna out. There should be several outs in the latter half of the home team lineup.
The Cubs get the defensive edge over another good defense because they have the defensive edge over every team in the league. They are also a better base running team, while Atlanta may have the slightly better bullpen.
Considering I give the road team slight edges almost everywhere, I think they should be slight favorites here and would play them down to even money, reducing bet size to half a unit below the current price of +106.
I have F5 and full game rated about evenly. Either or even splitting it up is fine, but I’m electing the better price, which is the full game.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline (+106; play to +100)
