The Milwaukee Brewers host the Chicago Cubs on July 29, 2025. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSWI.
After Monday's 8-4 win in the series opener, the Brewers now own a one-game lead over the rival Cubs in the race for the NL Central division.
Milwaukee is a slight betting favorite in the second matchup of this important series, as Quinn Priester (3.28 ERA, 101 2/3 IP) will face off against Colin Rea (4.06 ERA, 102 IP).
Read our Cubs vs Brewers predictionsand MLB same-game parlay picks below.
My Cubs vs Brewers Prediction
- Cubs vs Brewers picks: Over 8.5 (-115, bet365 | Play to -120)
My Cubs vs Brewers best bet is on the Over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Brewers Odds, Spread, Best Bet
| Chicago Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 8 -120o / 100u | +105 |
| Milwaukee Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 8 -120o / 100u | -125 |
- Cubs vs Brewers Run Line: Cubs -1.5 (+170); Brewers +1.5 (-210)
- Cubs vs Brewers Total: 8 (O -120 / U +105)
- Cubs vs Brewers Moneyline: Cubs +105; Brewers -125
- Cubs vs Brewers Best Bet: Over 8.5
Cubs vs Brewers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Colin Rea (CHC) | Stat | RHP Quinn Priester (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | W-L | 9-2 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 4.06 / 4.84 | ERA / xERA | 3.28 / 3.56 |
| 4.96 / 4.48 | FIP / xFIP | 3.84 / 3.63 |
| 1.27 | WHIP | 1.20 |
| 10.8% | K-BB% | 12.4% |
| 36.4% | GB% | 57.5% |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 100 | Location+ | 100 |
Nick Martin’s Cubs vs Brewers Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview: Rea Regression Leaves Cubs Vulnerable
Rea appeared to be one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball during his excellent start to the 2024 season, and has suffered from some significant negative regression as expected since that point. Throughout the past 25 starts, he's posted a 4.89 ERA in 147 1/3 innings of work and has allowed 1.95 HR/9 while managing an 11.9% strikeout minus walk rate.
Since June 1, Rea has posted a 5.61 FIP behind a 9.2% strikeout minus walk rate. He's allowed a 41% hard-hit rate during the stretch with a .289 xBA. He's posted a 92 Stuff+ throughout those nine starts, which suggests it's no surprise to see that he's allowed a 90.8% zone contact rate.
While the Cubs' bullpen does still appear to be quite solid on paper, Chicago's relievers have struggled mightily over the past month, with a 6.01 ERA.
Given the struggles of Rea and the recent form of the bullpen, the Cubs may need a strong offensive output to earn an important win in this matchup, and it is realistic to think they can bat their way out of trouble. Chicago ranks first in the MLB in runs per game (5.25) behind the third-highest wRC+ in baseball.
No team has been more potent against right-handed pitching than the Cubs this season, as they sit tied atop the league with the New York Yankees with a 117 wRC+. They have also been excellent offensively on the road, as they rank third in baseball with a 116 wRC+.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview: Priester Improving
The Brewers have surged to the top of the division with a 24-8 run dating back to June 19, and their tremendous offensive play in that span has been a big part of the story. They hold a 118 wRC+ in those 32 matchups and rank fourth in weighted on-base average. They have also posted a 115 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching during their 24-8 run.
After finishing the 2024 season with a 4.71 ERA and a 4.70 FIP, Priester has become yet another pitcher to find better results after entering the Brewers organization, pitching to a 3.28 ERA and a 3.63 xFIP this season. He still holds well below average chase, whiff and strikeout rates, but has been an effective ground-ball pitcher.
Priester has posted a 97 Stuff+ rating and a 97 Pitching+ rating.
Milwaukee's bullpen owns the third-lowest ERA in baseball over the past month but is fairly taxed entering this matchup, as Brandon Woodruff has been the only starter to last over five innings since Thursday's off-day.
Cubs vs Brewers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Both of these offenses enter this important matchup in excellent form and appear to be well situated for another productive day at the plate.
Rea has come down to earth since his surprisingly dominant start to last season and appears likely to continue offering well below average results. He's allowed plenty of hard contact, generated few strikeouts and struggled to limit home runs. None of those things are overly surprising given that his stuff grades out well below average.
Priester looks to be a far more competent arm, but he is getting a tough matchup versus a deep Cubs lineup that has produced more runs than any other team in baseball.
A total of 8.5 looks too low given the starting pitching matchup and the recent form of these offenses. At -125 or better, I see value in betting this game to feature nine or more runs.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-115, bet365 | Play to -125)
Moneyline
As the Brewers have now moved to -130, the betting prices on sides in this game look fair. Rea does appear to be a lesser starter than Priester, but considering the upside of Chicago's lineup, its defensive play, and a more well-rested bullpen, it has some edges to help alleviate that concern.
Run Line (Spread)
There does not appear to be any value backing either team to cover the run-line.
Over/Under
As outlined, betting this game to feature over 8.5 total runs is my favorite play from this matchup.
