The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Chicago Cubs on September 15, 2025. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
Find my MLB betting preview and Cubs vs Pirates prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Cubs vs Pirates Prediction
- Cubs vs Pirates pick: Cubs ML
My Cubs vs Pirates best bet is on the Cubs to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Pirates Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8 -115o / -105u | -135 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 8 -115o / -105u | +115 |
Cubs vs Pirates Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jameson Taillon (CHC) | Stat | RHP Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-6 | W-L | 4-2 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 4.15/4.21 | ERA /xERA | 2.47/3.54 |
| 4,97/4.40 | FIP / xFIP | 2.65/3.64 |
| 1.11 | WHIP | 1.20 |
| 3.6 | K-BB% | 2.7 |
| 32.9 | GB% | 51.2 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 108 | Location+ | 99 |
Sean Paul’s Cubs vs Pirates Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview: Waiting for Tucker's Return
Barring any disaster on the Brewers' side, the Cubs don't have much room to improve from the first Wild Card spot. So, while these games don't have as many stakes for the Cubs as they do for other teams, it's still important to play well heading into the playoffs.
On the mound is Jameson Taillon, who returns to his former stomping grounds in Pittsburgh. Just one game removed from the injured list, Taillon allowed six hits and two runs over 4 1/3 innings. If he were facing a better offense than the Braves, the damage could've been more severe.
It's been an interesting season for Taillon. He's no more than a mid-to-back-end rotation innings eater on a good team. But he's a really good innings-eater, at that. He's pitching to a 4.15 ERA in 110 2/3 innings through 20 outings. He has a 4.21 xERA and a 4.97 FIP. The reason for the poor FIP is that Taillon allows 1.87 HR/9. He's an extreme fly-ball pitcher, so on warm nights against good teams, those fly-balls can turn into homers quickly.
The Cubs' offense appeared lost once Kyle Tucker hit the injured list, but they've looked much better lately. They have the 14th best wRC+ in MLB since Tucker hit the injured list in eight games, and 11th over the last two weeks (eight games including Tucker). Their plate patience has been a real factor, leading the league with a 12.1% walk rate in that span.
The trio of Nico Hoerner, Willi Castro, and Dansby Swanson has largely carried the offense, as Michael Busch, Seiya Suzuki, and Pete Crow-Armstrong struggle. The Cubs won't reach their peak offensively until Tucker is back, but the latter trio needs to play better. Unless that trio plays better, the Cubs have a limited playoff ceiling. But their talent around them is more than enough to topple middling clubs like Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview: Pitching is the Only Hope
The Pirates' youth movement in their pitching rotation continues. This time, Braxton Ashcraft will take the mound, and the Cubs know his game all too well. While Ashcraft has shuffled from bullpen to rotation, Ashcraft tossed five dazzling innings versus the Cubs last month.
Since then, Ashcraft tossed 16 2/3 innings and allowed two earned runs in his last four outings. He's an exciting young arm who keeps teams on the ground (88th percentile groundball rate) and induces soft-contact (97th percentile barrel rate). However, he won't likely go more than five innings. He's done that just one time all season.
Not to mention, the Pirates' most pressing issue remains their brutal offense. Over their last two weeks, Pittsburgh ranks 28th in MLB with a 79 wRC+.
They have little to no power — ranking dead-last with 13 homers over that span and have a .121 ISO. Teams that don't have power don't stand a good chance against Taillon. He's easily turned those fly-balls into weak outs and should pitch deeper into the contest than his counterpart, which makes the pitching matchup a real advantage in the Cubs' corner.
Cubs vs Pirates Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'm on the Cubs here to -150. I think that's a pretty strong value as a small road favorite. The Cubs own a 7-3 record over their divisional foe from Pittsburgh, and I don't see them dropping a fourth here.
The pitching matchup is a huge boost in the Cubs' direction, given Ashcraft's likely limited workload.
The offense is the real difference here, though. The Pirates' offense is a total nightmare and the Cubs have an offensive peak that the Pirates simply can't match.
Pick: Cubs ML (-135, bet365; play to -150)
Moneyline
I like the Cubs ML.
Run Line (Spread)
No play.
Over/Under
No play.
Cubs vs Pirates Betting Trends
