The Washington Nationals host the Chicago Cubs on August 13, 2026. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NATS.
Find my MLB picks and Cubs vs Nationals prediction below.
Cubs vs Nationals Prediction
- Cubs vs Nationals Pick: Under 8.5 (48c, Kalshi)
Cubs vs Nationals Kalshi MLB Odds
Cubs vs Nationals Probable Pitchers
| Kevin Gausman (RHP, CHC) | Stat | Cade Cavalli (RHP, WSN) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-10 | W-L | 9-5 |
| 2.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.3 |
| 4.29 / 3.82 | ERA / xERA | 3.57 / 4.11 |
| 3.53 / 3.84 | FIP / xFIP | 3.59 / 3.39 |
| 16.6% | K-BB% | 18.5% |
| 38.3% | GB% | 50.0% |
| .304 | BABIP | .328 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 108 | Location+ | 97 |
Cubs vs Nationals MLB Preview
I really like this starting pitching matchup.
Kevin Gausman is one of the sport’s best pitchers when he’s locked in. He’s been unlucky this season (4.29 ERA), but the underlying numbers are still rock-solid (3.82 xERA, 3.53 FIP, 3.84 xFIP, 3.08 botERA) behind his ever-dangerous splitter (40% whiff, .235 xwOBA allowed).
Washington’s offense is a little watered down right now without James Wood — Zerillo projects this lineup with just a 95 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. That’ll help Gausman, as will the league’s best infield defense.
The Nationals have found a few solid starting arms this season, including Cade Cavalli, power-rated as Sean Zerillo’s No. 34 starting pitcher (3.71 weighted FIP). He’s got a couple of nasty secondary offerings (117 Stuff+ slider, 112 Stuff+ curveball).
We have a few things working against us, like two poor bullpens, an offensive-friendly umpire, and an offensive-friendly ballpark.
But ultimately, Zerillo projects this total at exactly 8.5, so getting Under 8.5 at less than 50 cents on Kalshi is a good look.
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Pick: Under 8.5 (48c, Kalshi)
