The Houston Astros host the Chicago White Sox on June 11, 2025. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on CHSN.
Find my MLB betting preview and White Sox vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My White Sox vs Astros Prediction
- White Sox vs Astros pick: Under 8.5 (-110 FanDuel)
My White Sox vs Astros best bet is on Under 8.5 with the best odds currently on FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
White Sox vs Astros Odds
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +125 | 8.5 -109o / -112u | +141 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -151 | 8.5 -109o / -112u | -170 |
White Sox vs Astros Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Sean Burke (CHW) | Stat | RHP Ryan Gusto (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-6 | W-L | 3-3 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 4.03 /5.31 | ERA /xERA | 4.78 /4.48 |
| 5.13 /5.19 | FIP / xFIP | 4.39 /4.62 |
| 1.39 | WHIP | 1.64 |
| 6.2% | K-BB% | 11.9% |
| 33.2% | GB% | 36.1% |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 100 | Location+ | 96 |
White Sox vs Astros Prediction, Betting Analysis
There’s a strong argument to be made for the Under in tonight’s matchup between the White Sox and Astros. Both teams have consistently leaned toward lower-scoring outcomes in their respective situational splits, and the context around this game further reinforces that trend.
Houston has seen 21 of its 35 home games go under the total this season, while Chicago has stayed under in 20 of its 32 road games. To further reinforce these season trends, Daikin Park (formerly Minute Maid Park) has been one of the most profitable Under venues in all of Major League Baseball over the past few seasons. Its configuration and the way games tend to play there often lead to suppressed scoring, and tonight looks like another candidate.
The White Sox offense has been especially poor away from home. On the road, they rank 26th in on-base percentage, 28th in slugging percentage, and 28th in wRC+, which combines key offensive metrics into one value. They’re averaging just 2.97 runs per game on the road — the second-lowest mark in the league — and face a rested and effective Astros bullpen tonight.
Houston starter Ryan Gusto has had a shaky start to the season, but the Astros don’t ask much of him ��� he’s kept on a short leash, and there’s a top-tier bullpen waiting behind him. That bullpen ranks among the league’s best, allowing the sixth-fewest total runs and fifth-fewest home runs. They also rank fifth in WHIP and ninth in ERA. With a day off on Monday and five straight outings of 5+ innings from their starters, Houston’s relievers should be available and close to full strength for this one.
Offensively, the Astros aren’t in an ideal split, either. They’ve been one of the best teams in baseball against left-handed pitching, ranking fifth in OPS and third in wRC+ in those matchups. But against right-handed pitchers like Sean Burke — who starts for the White Sox — they’ve been far less effective, ranking 25th in OPS (.690) and just 20th in wRC+ (97).
When you combine the struggling offenses, the strong bullpen setup, and a ballpark that consistently favors the Under, this game shapes up as a textbook low-scoring opportunity. The market may be slow to adjust, but the edge here leans clearly to the Under
Pick: White Sox vs Astros U8.5 (-110 FanDuel)
Moneyline
I will not be betting on either side of the Moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I also don't see an edge on either team to cover the run line.
Over/Under
As mentioned above, I see value in game totals.
