The New York Yankees host the Cleveland Guardians on June 5, 2025. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
The Yankees are massive favorites in Thursday's rubber-match versus the Guardians, as Max Fried (1.92 ERA, 56 2/3 IP) will look to continue building his case for the AL Cy Young in a matchup versus Slade Cecconi (5.28 ERA, 15 1/3 IP).
Find my MLB betting preview and Guardians vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Guardians vs Yankees Prediction
- Guardians vs Yankees pick: Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 (bet365, Play to +135)
My Guardians vs Yankees best bet is Jazz Chisholm Jr. over 1.5 total bases. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Yankees Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +105 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +225 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -125 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -275 |
Guardians vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Slade Cecconi (CLE) | Stat | LHP Max Fried (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 7-1 |
| -0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.8 |
| 5.28/6.61 | ERA /xERA | 1.92/3.64 |
| 6.07/3.80 | FIP / xFIP | 2.87/3.23 |
| 1.43 | WHIP | 0.97 |
| 17.9 | K-BB% | 18.1 |
| 35.6 | GB% | 51.2 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 105 | Location+ | 104 |
Nick Martin’s Guardians vs Yankees Preview
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview: Cecconi Looks to Rebound
After finishing his 2024 campaign with a 6.66 ERA across 77 innings of work, Cecconi has remained ineffective through his first three outings this season, pitching to an ERA of 5.28 and a WHIP of 1.43. He also holds an xERA of 6.61 and a FIP of 6.07.
Left-handed batters have slugged .708 versus Cecconi this year compared to .480 in 2024.
Cleveland's bullpen hasn't been as dominant as it was in 2024, but it's remained a strength, with a 3.85 ERA and 3.77 xFIP entering this matchup.
The Guardians haven't been in overly strong form at the plate recently, as they hold a wRC+ of 96 over the last 30 days and have struck out 24% of the time while ranking 22nd in hard-hit rate.
They've struggled with left-handed pitching this season, holding a wRC+ of 76 entering this matchup.
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Turning to Fried in Favorable Pitching Matchup
Fried currently ranks fourth among qualified AL starters with an ERA of 1.92 and has been particularly stingy pitching at Yankee Stadium, with an ERA of 1.69 and a WHIP of 0.96.
His 3.64 xERA and 3.23 xFIP do suggest some negative regression could be on the horizon, but he's outperformed his xERA in six straight seasons.
While Fried could fare quite well in this matchup versus a Guardians side that's struggled to hit left-handed pitchers this year, he also should have a chance of receiving strong run support as one of baseball's toughest lineups takes on Cecconi.
The Yankees rank third in a wRC+ over the last 30 days and rank first in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching dating back to the start of last season.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. made a strong return to the lineup in Tuesday's series opener, as he went 2-for-3 with a home run. He's been highly effective versus righties this season, with a .474 slug rate and .767 OPS. He's slugged .472 across 323 plate appearances with the Yankees.
Guardians vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
As you would expect given this starting pitching matchup, the Yankees are the biggest favorite on the board from today's 13-game slate.
Even though backing the Yankees to cover the run line is still only paying -130, that would be my first choice in terms of a side or total, given the disparity between both of these lineups and starting pitchers.
Considering all of the splits working in his favor in a matchup versus Cecconi, a price of +145 for Chisholm to record over 1.5 total bases provides value.
He's slugged .610 at home this season and has hit for power effectively versus righties. Plus, he gets a good matchup against a righty offering a well below-average fastball.
Pick: Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 (bet365, Play to +135)
Moneyline
As outlined, the Yankees would be my first choice in terms of betting a side at -275.
Run Line (Spread)
Backing the Yankees to cover the run-line at -130 looks to be a reasonable option, and if the price were to come down to -120, it would be worth a bet.
Over/Under
A total of 8.5 looks to be fair number for this matchup.
