The Philadelphia Phillies host the Cleveland Guardians on May 24, 2026. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CLEG.
The Guardians are favored by -124 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Phillies are +106 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Guardians vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Guardians vs Phillies Prediction
- Guardians vs Phillies Pick: Guardians ML (-135 or Better)
My Guardians vs Phillies best bet is on Cleveland to win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Phillies Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -124 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -164 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +106 |
- Guardians vs Phillies moneyline: Guardians -124, Phillies +106
- Guardians vs Phillies over/under: 7.5 (-115 / -105)
- Guardians vs Phillies spread: Guardians -1.5 (+136), Phillies +1.5 (-164)
Guardians vs Phillies Probable Pitchers
| Parker Messick (LHP, CLE) | Stat | Andrew Painer (RHP, PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | W-L | 1-4 |
| 1.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 2.45 / 3.18 | ERA / xERA | 5.77 / 4.62 |
| 3.17 / 3.05 | FIP / xFIP | 4.59 / 4.33 |
| 20.8% | K-BB% | 11.9% |
| 45.4% | GB% | 39.6% |
| .268 | BABIP | .328 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 105 | Location+ | 102 |
Guardians vs Phillies MLB Betting Preview
Are the Guardians a “fun” team? Not quite.
But are they one of the best teams in baseball? That they are.
Winning doesn't have to look fun. They all count the same.
In-house pitching development is the foundation of the Guardians' winning ways. They churn out 3.00 ERA starters like it's nothing, and the latest is southpaw Parker Messick.
Messick has been brilliant for Cleveland, boasting a 2.45 ERA with a 3.17 xERA and a 3.18 FIP. He's also striking out a dazzling 9.82 batters per nine, while giving up less than a homer per nine.
The Guardians' offense has been terrific in May, posting a 106 wRC+, ranking eighth among MLB lineups. They have just a .231 batting average (21st), but no team is better at making pitchers grind than Cleveland. It has the best walk rate in May (12%) and tied for the best strikeout rate (18%). Not to mention, it leads the league with 31 steals and is top-10 in homers.
If a team lacks pure hitting talent, they have to make up for it in other ways. The Guardians have done plenty of that with their bat-to-ball approach and ability to play small ball.
Not to mention, this Guardians bullpen is nasty. Cade Smith is the league leader in saves, and he's one of four Guardians bullpen options with an ERA below 3.00.
With a strong showing in May, the Phillies are back in the mix for a playoff spot. They have a 12-7 record this month and can add another series win today.
Andrew Painter is off to a pretty shaky start in his MLB career. He enters this outing with a 5.77 ERA, a 4.62 xERA, and a 4.59 FIP. His last two outings were two of his best, holding the Reds to three hits and two runs in six innings and the Red Sox to four hits and one run in five innings.
Here's my drawback with Painter: He doesn't strike guys out. His K/9 is just 7.63, and his whiff rate is 21.5%. Sure, Painter throws upper-90s heat, but most pitchers do, and most hitters can hit it. His flat four-seamer gets crushed, as evidenced by his -5 fastball run value.
Better days might be ahead, but he needs to figure out his identity. Throwing a bad fastball 40% of the time will lead to bad results. Something has to give.
The Phillies rank 19th among MLB lineups with a 93 wRC+ this month.
Unlike the Guardians', the Phillies' approach is predicated on aggressive hitting and long balls. They have the third most homers in May, but walk just 6.5% of the time and strike out 23% of the time. Not much scoring will come from the Phillies if they don't hit a few balls out.
It's a good thing that Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are two of the best at doing just that. Schwarber has nine homers in May, and Harper has five. However, Messick will look to limit them in the lefty-lefty battles. Plus, the Guardians can go to Eric Sabrowski or Tim Herrin to contain the lefty sluggers in the latter stages of the game.
Guardians vs Phillies Pick, Betting Analysis
I know, the Guardians are a road favorite in Citizens Bank Park after losing two of the first three games of this series
But I view -135 as good enough value to support the matchup advantages that Cleveland boasts.
Pick: Guardians ML (-135 or Better)
