The Washington Nationals host the Cleveland Guardians on May 7, 2025. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 12:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on CLEG.
The Guardians and Nationals split a doubleheader on Tuesday as the Nats secured a thrilling 10-9 win in game one and the Guardians cruised to a game two victory. That means Wednesday's game will decide which team takes the series win, which makes it all the more entertaining.
Find my Guardians vs Nationals prediction for Wednesday below, as well as my preview, probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
My Guardians vs Nationals Prediction
- Guardians vs Nationals picks: Guardians ML (Play to -140)
My Guardians vs Nationals best bet for Wednesday is the Guardians moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Nationals Odds, Spread
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 9 -118o / -102u | -125 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 9 -118o / -102u | +105 |
Guardians vs Nationals Projected Starting Pitchers
| Logan Allen (CLE) | Stat | Michael Soroka (WAS) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 0-1 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.0 |
| 4.02/4.49 | ERA /xERA | 7.20/4.03 |
| 4.34/5.00 | FIP / xFIP | 5.06/4.17 |
| 1.53 | WHIP | 1.20 |
| 1.5 | K-BB% | 3.0 |
| 42.4% | GB% | 47.1% |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 95 | Location+ | 108 |
My Guardians vs Nationals Preview
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview
It feels like the Guardians got off to a bit of a slow start. However, they sit just two games behind the scalding-hot Detroit Tigers for first place in the AL Central.
One piece the Guardians could use for their current and future success is lefty hurler Logan Allen. He's faced a steady decline since starting off his MLB career on fire. He’s been demoted several times and might be on track to lose his rotation spot again. The southpaw enters Wednesday’s contest with a 4.02 ERA and 4.50 xERA.
My larger worries about Allen center around two stats — his 6.32 K/9 and 4.31 BB/9. He’s small, so it’s not a shocker that he doesn’t feature elite stuff to generate strikeouts. But there has to be some give and take. A pitcher can’t have mediocre stuff and walk over four batters per nine and avoid damage.
He's been very boom-or-bust, allowing two or fewer runs in four of his six starts, but he allowed 11 total in the other two. If he can give the Guardians a solid five innings on Wednesday, that would prove huge.
The Guardians' elite bullpen leaked oil in game one of the doubleheader on Tuesday. Cade Smith allowed four runs and threw 26 pitches, while Hunter Gaddis tossed nearly 20 pitches to record one out. That was an odd blip on the radar, so Steven Vogt will likely trot them back on short rest.
On the offensive end, the Guardians rank 17th in MLB with a 96 wRC+ since April 15th. I'm buying stock in the Guardians offense, as Daniel Schneemann (223 wRC+) and Gabriel Arias (102 wRC+) have developed key roles in the last three weeks. If the bottom-of-the-order bats continue hitting, it'll be tough to hold Cleveland's offense down when Jose Ramirez finds his stroke.
Washington Nationals Betting Preview
The Nationals have carved out a spot in third place in the NL East, behind the first-place Mets and surging Phillies. There's a lot to like about the Nationals future, but their starting rotation remains a contentious subject.
In what’s proven to be an injury-marred career for once-top prospect Michael Soroka, he returns from yet another lengthy absence. The Nationals righty started on Opening Day and got hurt again.
Soroka was just ordinary in his three minor league rehab outings, posting a 3.75 ERA in 12 innings with a 1.25 WHIP. The biggest issue was throwing consistent strikes, leading to five walks in 12 innings. He'll have to pay a steeper price in the bigs for allowing free passes, so he'll need to slow down.
The Nationals have some real struggles hitting southpaws. They rank 18th in MLB with an 85 wRC+ versus left-handed pitching. You'd probably expect a pair of young left-handed hitting stars like CJ Abrams and James Wood to be why the Nationals can't hit lefties, but that's not the case. Wood leads the Nationals with a 155 wRC+ against southpaws and Abrams is second with a 128. Two other lefties, Nate Lowe has a 42 wRC+ with a 41.1% K rate and Luis Garcia Jr has a -15 wRC+ against southpaws.
I also have very little faith in Washington's bullpen. The only reliever Dave Martinez can truly rely on to get three outs is the closer, Kyle Finnegan. The bridge to the ninth is more blurry, as the fireballing Jose Ferrer can't throw strikes and set-up man Jorge Lopez is well past his prime.
My Guardians vs Nationals Betting Analysis
I like the Guardians here. Allen is the better pitcher in this matchup, given the Nationals issues with left-handed pitching. Plus, the bullpen advantage is a huge positive on Cleveland's side. I'd grab the Guardians up to -140 on the ML.
It's only a matter of time until the Guardians offense posts numbers that lifts them to the upper-half of wRC+ in MLB. So, now is the time to buy stock in their bats until the surge happens.
Pick: Guardians ML (Play to -140)
