Cubs vs Astros Prediction Thursday | MLB Odds, Picks Today (April 25)
Astros vs. Cubs Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-130 | 7.5 -120 / -102 | -1.5 +132 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+110 | 7.5 -120 / -102 | +1.5 -160 |
As the season hits the 25 game mark, the Astros sit last in the NL West at 7-18. With the starting rotation in shambles and the bullpen struggling mightily, the Astros will be happy to hand the ball to Justin Verlander Thursday. Verlander was solid in his season debut versus Washington as he allowed just two earned runs across six innings to earn the win.
The Cubs have an opportunity to claim their first series sweep of the season with a victory today. Javier Assad will start the game, and has pitched to a stellar 2.11 ERA across 21 and 1/3 innings this season.
Read below for my Astros vs. Cubs pick for Thursday.
Cody Bellinger found his way onto the IL yesterday with a fractured rib after slamming into the outfield wall and is expected to miss around two weeks of play. Top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong was recalled from Triple-A Iowa as a result. Bellinger joins Seiya Suzuki on the IL, so we should see Crow-Armstrong given a chance to make numerous starts.
The Cubs have hit to a wRC+ of 107 this season, and own a fourth best xSLG of .434. They have been less effective in splits versus right-handed pitching so far, with a wRC+ of 99 and 23.9% K-rate.
Javier Assad has been a nice surprise for Chicago, as former bullpen arm owns a 2.11 ERA and a WHIP of only 1.03 on the season.
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Things have gotten ugly quick in Houston, and a team that was expected to be a World Series contender once again has struggled mightily. Their pitching staff has struggled to an ERA of 5.14, which is the third highest mark in baseball. Due to a rash of injuries they have got very few quality starts. Their bullpen has also been a disaster, pitching to an ERA of 5.04.
Verlander seems likely to provide a rare quality start in this matchup, and for the time being it feels paramount that the Astros win every game where they receive a respectable outing from their starter. He owned a 124 Stuff+ rating in his first game versus Washington, with all of his four pitches rating at 113 or higher. He was hard-hit 29% of the time, and pitched to an xFIP of 3.65.
Verlander finished the 2023 season with a 3.22 ERA across 162 and 1/3 innings. Most systems projected he would regress to an ERA around the 4.00 mark, but his initial outing versus Washington tells us that maybe that's a bit bearish on the future Hall of Famer.
A lack of timely hitting has been a bit of a problem for the Astros this season and in this series, and is part of the reason for their 21st ranked runs scored per game average.
The rest of the Astros offensive profile looks on par with their reputation. They have hit to a fourth best wRC+ of 115, own a fifth-best BB/K of 0.48, and a fourth-best xSLG of .428.
They hold a 12th-ranked OPS of .668 with RISP, which has been part of the concern so far this season but could improve moving forward.
Jose Abreu has been a train wreck so far this season, and was benched again in Wednesday's win. At some point we should see prospect Joey Loperfido get a chance at first base, which could also provide improved offensive potency.
Cubs vs. Astros
Betting Pick & Prediction
Despite their horrid record, the Astros still have enough edges in this matchup to be larger favorites than they currently stand at -125. In particular, Verlander should prove to be a far superior starter to Assad.
Verlander is also backed by an offense which by most underlying indicators is still one of the best in MLB. Even if you want to put a little stock in the idea of "clutch" hitting, the Astros key batters deserve to be viewed as guys who over a large sample should be expected to come through when it matters.
Backing the Astros to win the full game is an option, but right now I feel most comfortable just singling in on Verlander's innings. You can bet the Astros to win the first five innings at +114 on FanDuel, and I believe there is value at anything better than -110.
Pick: Astros F5 -0.5 (+114 | Play to -110)
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