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MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Cubs vs. Brewers: Betting Value on Chicago as Road Underdog (Monday, July 4)

MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Cubs vs. Brewers: Betting Value on Chicago as Road Underdog (Monday, July 4) article feature image
Credit:

Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Wisdom

  • The Brewers are home favorites in this afternoon's game against the Cubs.
  • Milwaukee sends Eric Lauer to the mound, while Chicago will counter with Justin Steele.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Cubs vs. Brewers Odds

Cubs Odds +130
Brewers Odds -157
Over/Under 9 (+102 / -124)
Time 4:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via UniBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Milwaukee Brewers have won seven of their last 10 games and, with a 46-35 record, sit atop the National League Central division with a two-game lead on the St. Louis Cardinals entering play Monday.

The Chicago Cubs have won six of their last 10 games, but with a 32-47 record overall on the season, sit 13 games behind the Brewers in the division race. The Cubs run differential on the season is negative-65 while the Brewers have outscored their opponents overall this year by 37 runs.

Milwaukee is certainly the better team on paper, but who will ultimately get the job done in this interdivisional matchup on July 4th?

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Cubs Offense Has Shot Off Lauer

While the Brewers are the favorite in this game, the Cubs aren’t without hope here.

The Cubs will also be facing Milwaukee starter Eric Lauer, who hasn’t been especially good lately after a promising start to the season. Lauer has allowed at least three earned runs in each of his last four starts.

The Cubs have seen Lauer twice already this season and the last time they faced him at home he failed to complete five innings.

Lauer is showing a sizable home and road split this year as he has a 2.25 ERA at home, but a 5.24 ERA on the road. He has a 4.02 ERA this year, but his xFIP is a bit higher at 4.54.

The Cubs have a decent amount of power against left-handed pitching as Christopher Morel, Willson Contreras and Patrick Wisdom each have ISOs above .200 against left-handed pitching this year.

This is a good matchup for the Cubs offense as Lauer has allowed a .220 ISO to right-handed batters this season.

Steele Familiar With These Brewers

Justin Steele has a 4.39 ERA this year, but his 4.30 xFIP is actually better than Lauer’s xFIP.

Steele has completed at least five innings in each of his last six starts and allowed more than three earned runs only once. He has faced the Brewers three times already this season and he’s completed at least five innings while allowing no more than three earned runs in two of those games.

Steele has a favorable home and road split this season as despite a 7.29 ERA in 21 innings on the road, he has a 3.14 ERA in 48 2/3 innings at home.

The Brewers are 14th in all of baseball with a 4.50 runs per game average at home this year.

Milwaukee also has a decent amount of power against left-handed pitching as Andrew McCutchen, Willy Adames, Michael Brosseau and Victor Caratini all have ISOs above .200 against left-handed pitching this season.

Steele has allowed just a .118 ISO to right-handed hitters this season, though.

Cubs-Brewers Pick

I’m taking the Cubs moneyline +130. With these odds, Chicago is an easy value to take here as the model I use sees this game more as a toss-up.

The Brewers are the better team and have the upper hand in the pitching matchup given the home and road splits for both pitchers and the fact that this game is in Milwaukee.

Still, Milwaukee isn’t totally deserving of being a -150 favorite so we’re riding with the Cubs here.

Pick: Cubs ML +130

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