Cubs vs Diamondbacks Odds, Prediction: 2 Ways to Bet Arizona
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Cubs vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+110 | 9 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -190 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-130 | 9 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +160 |
Here's everything you need to know for Cubs vs. Diamondbacks on Wednesday, April 17, including odds and a pick.
There has been high drama in the opening two games of this series, as these sides have split a pair of extra-inning matches, including a 12-11 thriller on Tuesday.
A pair of pitchers off to disappointing starts will take the mound in Wednesday's rubber match. Jordan Wicks (5.68 ERA, 12 2/3 IP) will pitch for the Cubs, while Brandon Pfaadt (6.48 ERA, 16 2/3 IP) will start for the Diamondbacks.
Add Wicks to the long list of pitchers who continue to prove Spring Training means little to predicting regular season success.
Wicks owned a 2.53 ERA in 21 and 1/3 innings throughout Spring Training but has been walloped in all three outings thus far.
He has allowed a WHIP of 1.89, but he has struck out 29.2% of batters faced and owns a reasonable hard-hit rate of 37.8% of the time. Batters have posted a .432 BABIP versus Wicks in 2024, the seventh-highest mark among any pitcher to throw over six innings. That mark will eventually stabilize, leading Wicks closer to his xERA of 4.55.
He has pitched to a Stuff+ of 93, which is an improvement upon his 2023 mark. He owns a Location+ of 99.
The Cubs' offense has been a strong point in their 10-7 start. They have played to a wRC+ of 105, which ranks 11th in MLB. They own the eighth-best BB/K of 0.48 and the seventh-best xSLG at .434.
They have improved their zone swing rate (2%), out-of-zone swing rate (-1.1%), and hard-hit rate (+2.5%) compared to 2023.
The Cubs bullpen has been heavily taxed over the last three days leading into this day game. Albert Alzolay, Hector Neris, Yency Amonte, Luke Little, and Drew Smyly have all thrown 28 pitches or more during the stretch.
Pfaadt was dominant in last season's NLCS, allowing just two earned runs across 9 1/3 innings pitched. That performance raised the hype surrounding the well-touted 25-year-old, who has offered disappointing results overall thus far at the big league level.
He has pitched to a 5.83 ERA in 112 and 2/3 innings in the regular season. His xFIP (4.34) suggests he has run with some tough luck overall. This season, he holds a 3.63 xFIP with a .347 BABIP allowed, which suggests he has been unlucky again.
Pfaadt has a Stuff+ of 103 and a Location+ of 104. Those marks also suggest he is due to produce better results than we have seen thus far as the season progresses.
The Diamondbacks' offense also looks to be considerably improved. They have a wRC+ of 105 and the second-best BB/K in the league at 0.64. Their .409 xSLG ranks 12th in MLB.
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Cubs vs. Diamondbacks
Betting Pick & Prediction
Pfaadt continues to underachieve expectations based on the high quality of his arsenal. He looked like a pitcher to buy on entering this season after a strong playoff run, but that has not been the case thus far.
Still, Pfaadt should provide an edge over Wicks, and this is a good matchup for the Diamondbacks lineup to be productive at the plate.
There is value in betting the Diamondbacks to win this game at -120, and I would play anything better than -125.
This is also an excellent spot to sprinkle on the Diamondbacks winning by a margin.
If the Diamondbacks chase Wicks early, the lead could balloon against softer arms from the Cubs' very stretched bullpen.
Pfaadt has the upside for highly dominant starts, and I want to target his high potential.
Back the Diamondbacks to cover -2.5 at +260 for a smaller stake.
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks ML (-120 · Play to -125) · Diamondbacks -2.5 +260
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