Cubs vs. Mets Odds, Preview, Prediction: Bullpens Will Shine at Citi Field (Monday, June 14)
Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Mets closer Edwin Diaz
Cubs vs. Mets Odds
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
The Cubs go for their sixth straight victory tonight when they take on NL East leading Mets at Citi Field.
The Chicago Cubs are tied with Milwaukee atop the NL Central and don’t showing any signs of slowing down. Chicago’s offense has come alive, while its bullpen has shut down opposing hitters in the later innings to put the squad 11 games over .500. They’ll send Jake Arrieta to the mound in hopes he can turn around his misfortune so far this season.
The Mets are red hot and starting to pull away in the NL East. They’re getting healthier, which has done wonders over the past two weeks. They’ll send a back end of the rotation starter David Peterson to the mound, who has been struggling mightily this season.
The Cubs have been hitting the ball well over the past month, putting up a .326 wOBA and 107 wRC+, both of which rank in the top half of MLB. Kris Bryant, Patrick Wisdom, Anthony Rizzo, and Joc Pederson have been four of the best hitters in the National League this season, as they all have a wOBA over .350. In fact, Wisdom has eight home runs in only 18 games.
The Cubs offense has also been been hitting lefties really well, as they have a .329 wOBA and 109 wRC+, which ranks inside the top eight of MLB. The Cubs will have a good matchup as well from a pitch type standpoint because they have positive run values versus Peterson’s two main pitches — sinker and fastball.
New York Mets
The Mets lineup is finally starting to get healthy, which means their bats are starting to get hot. Over the past two weeks the Mets have a .346 wOBA and 124 wRC+, which is the fourth best mark in baseball. They’ll have a great matchup against Jake Arrieta too because most of that success over the past two weeks has come against right handed pitching and the Mets have five guys in their lineup with a wOBA over .375 against sinkers, which is the pitch Arrieta goes to over 55% of the time.
Starting Pitching Matchup
Jake Arrieta vs. David Peterson
2021 Stats (via FanGraphs)
Cubs Starting Pitcher
Jake Arrieta, RHP
2021 Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)
Jake Arrieta is on the wrong side of 30 and it’s been showing the past few seasons. This year is no different because his xERA is all the way up at 5.74 and his xFIP is at 4.90, both career highs. His main problem is his two main pitches of sinker and slider are getting shelled, which is a big problem since he goes to them over 77% of the time.
Opponents have hit his sinker hard to the tune of a .306 average and a .396 xWOBA. His slider hasn’t been much better, as its allowing an xwOBA over .400 to opposing hitters. The Mets have a ton of guys in their lineup that crush sinkers and have been the fourth best team in baseball over the past two weeks against sliders.
Mets Starting Pitcher
David Peterson, LHP
2021 Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)
Nothing has gone right for David Peterson this season. Both is ERA and xERA have ballooned over four and none of his main pitches are having any effectiveness. His control is a major issue too because his BB/9 rate is over 4 and his HR/9 is over 2. His fastball and sinker are both allowing an xwOBA over .350 to opposing hitters, which is a problem against this Cubs lineup because those are two pitches they crush.
There is some hope for Peterson though because he is due for some positive regression, as his xFIP is all the way down at 3.62. However, this is a terrible matchup for him, so it’s not likely going to come on Monday night.
This will be a showdown of two of the best bullpens in all of baseball. The Cubs come into the series ranked 5th in xFIP, first in K/9, and first in left on base percentage. The Mets on the other hand have the third best ERA, second in xFIP, and have the second lowest HR/9 rate. So, if the starting pitchers get knocked out early, it may be a good time to try and play a live under depending on the situation.
Even though both starting pitchers have bad matchups in this game, I think the bullpens will take over and calm things down, since they are two of the best in all of baseball. Not to mention the game is being played in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball.
Since, I only have 7.42 runs projected for this game, I think there is some value on Under 9 runs at -105 odds (FanDuel).
Pick: Under 9 runs (-105)
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