Cubs vs. Yankees Prediction | Odds, Picks for Friday, July 7
Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Carlos Rodon.
Cubs vs. Yankees Odds
Carlos Rodon makes his long-awaited Yankees debut on Friday night at Yankee Stadium.
New York, after another horrendous start from Luis Severino on Thursday, is clinging to the final AL Wild Card spot by just one game and is in desperate need of a strong start from its prized offseason signing.
Jameson Taillon will start for the Cubs as he looks to better his 6.93 ERA and collect a victory against his former team.
Continue reading below for a breakdown of the Cubs vs. Yankees interleague series opener, which includes a betting pick on the first five innings.
Over his past five starts, Taillon owns a 7.09 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP in 26 2/3 innings.
On the season, he has a 5.62 xERA with a 4.85 xFIP. He's been unlucky, as evidenced by his .337 BABIP, but either way he's a below-average starter this season.
Taillon's stuff does rate above average as he owns a Stuff+ rating of 101 and a Location+ of 104.
Whether batters are identifying the pitch early or the shape is off, Taillon's breaking stuff is getting crushed.
Over the past 30 days, Chicago has hit to a 94 wRC+ and struck out 22.3% of the time. To make matters worse, Dansby Swanson is likely to sit this one out with a heel contusion he suffered in Milwaukee.
Nick Madrigal will also remain out of the lineup.
After suffering two separate injuries, Rodon will finally make his Yankees debut. New York landed Rodon with a hefty six-year, $162 million contract this offseason after he pitched to an 2.88 ERA with the Giants last year.
Rodon threw 3 2/3 innings in his final rehab start Sunday in High-A. He allowed a hit and fanned eight on just 58 pitches. His fastball sat between 95 and 98 mph and his breaking ball reportedly looked sharp.
It is unclear what Rodon's pitch count will be, but something between 65-75 is a reasonable assumption. Clay Holmes did get warm for a bit Thursday, but is likely still the top candidate to enter when Rodon exits.
New York's offense has been one of few to post worse results than the Cubs recently. Over the past 30 days, the Yankees' wRC+ is 87.
Cubs vs. Yankees Betting Pick
It's difficult to know what to expect from Rodon, but it's clear that a debut even somewhat in line with his potential would offer the Yankees a clear starting pitching edge in this game.
Targeting the Yankees team total and/or betting Taillon to give up more than 2.5 earned runs are also solid options, but I actually like the chances Rodon pitches well. Therefore, my favorite play is backing the Yankees to cover -0.5 in the first five innings.
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