The Cleveland Guardians host the Detroit Tigers on September 30, 2025. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 1:08 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Find my MLB betting preview and Tigers vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Tigers vs Guardians Prediction
- Tigers vs Guardians picks: Guardians ML
My Tigers vs Guardians best bet is on the Guardians moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tigers vs Guardians Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 6.5 100o / -120u | -170 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 6.5 100o / -120u | +140 |
Sean Paul’s Tigers vs Guardians Preview
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview: Late Season Collapse
To say the Tigers limped into the playoffs would be an understatement. They completely cratered and ultimately lost the division to their Wild Card opponents — the Cleveland Guardians.
Now, can the one consistent bright spot — Tarik Skubal — put Detroit in position to be one game away from the ALDS?
Skubal will soon etch his name in the back-to-back CY Young Award winners club. The flame-throwing southpaw posted a 2.21 ERA with a 2.74 xERA and a 2.45 FIP, while punching out 11.10 batters per nine this season.
However, Skubal lost his final three starts of the year, two of which were against the Guardians. It’s not like Skubal was awful; he allowed just one earned run in both games. But he allowed 7+ baserunners in both outings in six innings, a far cry from his league-leading 0.89 WHIP.
Skubal would be the least of my concerns if you're a Tigers bettor or fan.
The long-standing issue is the Tigers' hapless offense. In the most important month of the year, Detroit cratered, posting an 87 wRC+ (25th in MLB) with a .228 average (24th) and a 26.2% strikeout rate (25th).
Detroit had a trio of All-Star starters — Riley Greene and Javier Baez in the outfield and Gleyber Torres at second base. Greene was awful down the stretch, hitting .195 with a 68 wRC+ in his final 96 ABs. Torres was pretty poor in his own right, hitting .209 with an 82 wRC+, and Baez is back to being a part-time player.
All the reasons the Tigers got hot in the first half are the reasons for their failure in the final six weeks of the year. Unless some of those bats who caught fire early find their way again, it could be a quick series for a lava-hot Cleveland club.
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview: Hot Finish Fuels Postseason Push
The Guardians needed strong outings from their starters down the stretch, and Gavin Williams delivered. Williams finally made good on his promising peripherals over the past couple years, posting a 3.06 ERA with a 4.28 xERA and 4.39 FIP. By those numbers, Williams has gotten lucky.
How will that "luck" fare in the biggest start of his season? I think Williams is more than just lucky. He was elite over his final seven starts, posting a 2.04 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 39 2/3 innings. Home runs and walks remain the concern, as Williams allowed 16 walks and nine homers in those seven outings. But the Tigers managed just two runs off of Williams in his final two starts of the year and he punched out 21 batters in 11 innings. So, it's not a stunner that Steven Vogt gave him the ball.
I had very little hope for the Guardians' offense, but the grit-and-grind of their approach vaulted them to the 12th-best wRC+ in September. In the season's final month, Cleveland finished top-13 in home runs, walk rate, and strikeout rate. And the key to the Guardians' offense is putting the ball in play.
Cleveland doesn't have as many household names in their lineup as the Tigers. Jose Ramirez is always hitting well, but the other most well-known player, Steven Kwan, had a 100 wRC+ over his final month and hit just .195 in his final seven games of the regular season. Any boost added from Kwan would be a big plus for the Guardians.
Tigers vs Guardians Prediction, Betting Analysis
I think the Guardians are just the better team at this point, and the Tigers have no business being favorites — even with Skubal. If the Guardians can keep the game tight during the first six or seven innings while Skubal is in the game, they'll have plenty of chances to exploit the Tigers' awful bullpen.
Detroit ranked 24th in bullpen ERA in September, compared to the Guardians, who had the second-best bullpen ERA. Skubal's pitching is a huge plus for the Tigers, but the major mismatches in the lineup and bullpen give the nod to the home underdogs.
Pick: Guardians ML (+140, bet365)
Tigers vs Guardians Betting Trends
