The Kansas City Royals (30-27) host the Detroit Tigers (37-20) on Friday, May 30, 2025. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FanDuel Sports Kansas City/Detroit.
The AL Central is shaping up to be a hotly contested division for a change, with four teams currently sitting at least three games above .500. The Royals enter this series seven games back of the Tigers, who enter Friday in the midst of a four-game winning streak.
The Tigers are -120 moneyline favorites as Casey Mize (2.46 ERA, 47 2/3 IP) takes on Seth Lugo (3.02 ERA, 56 2/3 IP).
Find my Tigers vs Royals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
Tigers vs Royals Prediction
- Tigers vs Royals pick: Tigers Moneyline -120 (FanDuel, Play to -130)
My Tigers vs Royals best bet is the Tigers moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8.5 -112o / -108u | -120 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -166 | 8.5 -112o / -108u | +100 |
Tigers vs Royals Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Casey Mize (DET) | Stat | RHP Seth Lugo (KC) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | W-L | 3-4 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 2.45/2.63 | ERA /xERA | 3.02/4.71 |
| 3.89/3.72 | FIP / xFIP | 4.50/4.02 |
| 1.01 | WHIP | 1.09 |
| 16.5 | K-BB% | 12.2 |
| 43.8 | GB% | 40.1 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 103 | Location+ | 96 |
Tigers vs Royals Preview, Prediction
Tigers Betting Preview: Riding Hot Streak
Mize's surprisingly excellent start to the season is one of the many reasons the Tigers enter this series atop the AL Central.
Mize has adjusted his pitch mix compared to last season, and the results have been excellent, as he holds a 2.63 xERA and 3.72 xFIP. His K-BB% is up to 16.5 compared to last year's mark of 10.8, and he holds a Pitching+ rating of 102.
After missing a pair of starts with a minor hamstring ailment, Mize returned from the IL last Thursday versus Guardians. He showed no cause for concern, as he allowed just one earned run across five innings of work and racked up six strikeouts.
Detroit's bullpen has also been a strength this season, as it holds an ERA of 3.28 and an xFIP of 3.99. It's in good shape after an off day yesterday, as Chase Lee is the only reliever to have thrown over 25 pitches over the last three days.
The Tigers have been able to build on their excellent finish to last season offensively and have overachieved expectations, with a wRC+ of 110 and an OPS of .733. They hold a 10th-ranked wRC+ of 107 versus right-handed pitching and a wOBA of .319.
Detroit had been playing without a trio of outfielders — Parker Meadows, Wenceel Perez and Matt Vierling — but it should have Meadows back within the next few games, while Perez returned to the lineup on Tuesday.
Royals Betting Preview: Lugo Returns
After suffering an injury to the middle finger of his pitching hand, Lugo will make his first start since May 11 in this matchup. Lugo pitched to a 3.00 ERA across 206 2/3 innings of work in 2024 and has gotten off to a comparable start, with a 3.02 ERA across 56 2/3 innings of work this season.
His underlying results are down compared to last season though, as he holds an xERA of 4.71 and an xFIP of 4.02. His pitch metrics are also down compared to last season, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 97 and a Pitching+ rating of 91.
He's been able to strand 83.1% of base runners this season despite allowing an xFIP of 4.98 with runners in scoring position.
The Royals rank 26th in wRC+ this season and have only three batters in the lineup that hold slug rates of greater than .400. They rank 25th in BB/K ratio and rank 21st in hard-hit rate.
Tigers vs Royals Prediction, Moneyline Pick
The Tigers have been one of the league's most profitable teams from a betting perspective this season, as picking them to win each of their first 57 games would yield a +14.5% ROI.
This appears to be a good time to continue riding the overachieving Tigers, as the underlying results suggest Mize is a superior starter compared to Lugo. Also the Tigers' offense has outperformed the Royals in most key categories.
At -130 or better, there looks to be value backing the Tigers to win this game.
Pick: Tigers ML -120 (FanDuel, Bet to -130)
Moneyline
As outlined, backing the Tigers to win is my favorite play from this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
Backing the Tigers to cover the run line at +140 also appears to present value, and it would likely hold a similar EV to backing Detroit to win at -120.
Over/Under
Backing the game to go under 8.5 runs would be my lean in terms of the total, as the main reason Detroit appears to hold value to me is the success Mize may have versus a thin Royals lineup.
