The New York Yankees host the Detroit Tigers on June 30, 2026. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on TBS.
The Yankees are favored by -142 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Tigers are +120 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Tigers vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Tigers vs Yankees Prediction
- Tigers vs Yankees Pick: Cam Schlittler Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+110, 0.5u); Lean Under 7.5
My Tigers vs Yankees best bet is on Cam Schlittler to go over his strikeout prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tigers vs Yankees Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 7.5 102o / -124u | +120 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 7.5 102o / -124u | -142 |
- Tigers vs Yankees moneyline: Tigers +120, Yankees -142
- Tigers vs Yankees over/under: 7.5 (+102o / -124u)
- Tigers vs Yankees spread: Tigers +1.5 (-200), Yankees -1.5 (+164)
Tigers vs Yankees Kalshi MLB Odds
Tigers vs Yankees Probable Pitchers
| LHP Tarik Skubal (DET) | Stat | RHP Cam Schlittler (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | W-L | 8-4 |
| 1.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.7 |
| 3.32/3.49 | ERA / xERA | 1.62/2.71 |
| 3.13/2.59 | FIP / xFIP | 2.21/2.83 |
| 24.8% | K-BB% | 24.9% |
| 45.8% | GB% | 43.5% |
| .287 | BABIP | .267 |
| 118 | Stuff+ | 110 |
| 107 | Location+ | 105 |
Tigers vs Yankees MLB Betting Preview
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview
Breaking down a matchup between the two-time reigning American League Cy Young Award winner and the man most likely to dethrone him at this point should be my easiest assignment of the season.
However, Tarik Skubal’s injury does make this a bit more difficult. The obvious place to start would be with how he’s performed since returning from that injury, much ahead of the usual timeline for that specific injury, due to new medical technology.
It’s been three starts since Skubal returned from the injury list and the best news is that his velocity has been up (97.3 mph) 0.7 mph from before he went on the IL and just 0.3 mph below last season.
While he struck out just four of 21 Guardians upon his return, Skubal has proceeded to strike out 17 of 47 batters faced over his last two starts (including nine Yankees last time out) and has only walked a total of two altogether (27.9 K-BB%).
He has allowed 10 runs in 16.1 innings with 13.6% Barrels/BBE, but that’s a bit misleading for two reasons.
First, all six of his barrels allowed have left the park during this stretch.
Second, the barrels account for 37.5% of his hard contact, which is just 36.4% since returning.
Skubal has a 4.96 ERA in the three starts and the 4.07 xERA and 5.85 FIP are not what you'd expect from him, but when also considering a 2.54 xFIP, 2.32 Bot ERA and 128 Pitching+, I’m not concerned at all.
I believe we can count on Skubal to be himself the rest of the way, should he remain injury free.
Interesting that despite the velocity increase, Skubal hasn’t hit 30% usage on his fastball in any of his three starts back (below 33% just once prior to the injury), distributing those pitches among the remaining four in his arsenal (changeup 25.9%, sinker 23.2%, slider 17.4%, curveball 4.2%).
The Yankees struggle against only two of those pitches, including being the third worst offense in the league against curveballs, which is Skubal’s least utilized pitch, but one of his best graded (62 PitchingBot, 128 Pitching+).
He may elect to attack the Yankees more often with sinkers, especially considering they’ll generally leave a few LHBs in there against LHP (Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm Jr.).
Skubal throws more sinkers to LHBs (52%) than any other pitch. It’s more about generating ground balls (63.6% this year) than whiffs (17.1% – his only pitch below 20%).
The Yankees have an outrageous 126 wRC+ at home and a 114 mark against LHP. Even without Aaron Judge, the projected lineup still averages a 117 wRC+ against southpaws this season, including the four runs they hung on Skubal in his last start, despite the nine strikeouts. A lot of that is due to Paul Goldschmidt’s 241 mark. Skubal knows a bit about him. Goldy homered twice in Skubal's last start.
However, they also have a team 43 wRC+ over the last week (through Sunday) and the projected lineup only has a 98 wRC+ over the last 30 days. They were completely shut down by some left-handed pitching at Fenway this past weekend.
Goldschmidt (156) is one of two projected Yankees above a 100 wRC+ over the last month. The other is Ali Sanchez (108).
I’m not really too concerned about stolen bases against Skubal because you’d have to reach base first, but for the sake of being complete, runners have taken off on only 0.9% of opportunities against him. Skubal’s 1 Net Bases Prevented is a bit above average. Dillon Dingler has only thrown out 17% of runners, but still earns a neutral 0 CS Above Average, likely meaning the pitchers are more at fault than he is most times.
The Yankees have the second most stolen bases in the league at 87, but again, they’d have to reach base first, which they haven’t been doing a lot of that lately and we don’t expect that to improve against Skubal.
Chisholm’s 24 stolen bases lead the team and he is also the only Yankee exceeding 1 Run via Stolen Bases (Statcast) with three. In fact, Jasson Dominguez (1) is the only other Yankee in positive territory.
Jose Cabellero is the only other Yankee with more than 10 stolen bases with 18, but he’s also the worst base runner on the team, leading the league in being picked off.
By Runs Prevented (-12) and OAA (-15), the Tigers are one of the worst fielding teams in the league. However, their projected defense led by Dingler’s 8 FRV (Fielding Run Value) and Zach McKinstry’s 4 actually sits at 1 FRV with Kerry Carpenter (-6) and Spencer Torkelson (-4) the main drains.
The Detroit bullpen has been top third of the league over the last 30 days with a 3.95 FIP and 3.76 xFIP, but also a 3.38 SIERA matching their 3.36 ERA.
The Tigers have BARTOLO’s 11th ranked bullpen with a 3.81 wFIP and should have everyone available on Tuesday.
New York Yankees Betting Preview
Cam Schlittler allowed more than three runs for only the second time last time out in Boston, but none of the four were earned.
He’s also struck out 29 of his last 77 batters faced to drive his season rate up to 29.9% this year with just a 5.1 BB%. He’s allowed only 16 barrels (6.3% of contact) with a 38.3 HardHit%.
With only six of those barrels leaving the park, Schlittler has a 2.21 FIP, but none of his remaining estimators are within a run of his 1.62 ERA, due to the unsustainable 6.4 HR/FB and questionable 80.8 LOB%.
However, aside from merely very good pitch modeling (3.45 Bot ERA, 113 Pitching+), none of those estimators reach three either.
Schlittler also has a miniscule 1.44 SIERA and .267 xwOBA allowed over the last 30 days.
There was some concern about a small dip in velocity about a month ago, but he’s sat 98 mph or better in each of his last three starts.
Schlittler will attack with his four-seamer (44.4%), cutter (27.4%) or sinker (20.1%) over 90% of the time.
The Red Sox have below average run values against each of the three fastball variations.
He will throw his curveball 9% of the time to LHBs, but doesn’t otherwise exceed 5% with any non-fastball pitch to batters from either side of the plate.
The Tigers are a bottom third of the league offense against four-seamers and middle of the pack against cutters, but also one of only six offenses even in break even territory against sinkers this year.
As a team, they have just a 94 wRC+ at home, but are an average offense against RHP (100 wRC+). The projected lineup also has a 101 wRC+ against RHP, but is up to 118 over the last 30 days overall.
While the success is evenly spread over the last month, only the first four (Kevin McGonigle, Dingler, Kerry Carpenter, and Riley Greene) have hit RHP well. All four have a 125 or better wRC+ against RHP this year. None of the remaining projected starters reach 100 (Torkelson 99).
Similar to Skubal, the problem is reaching base if you want to steal a base on Schlittler, who sits at 2 Net Bases Prevented. Austin Wells has been below average at throwing them out (-2 CSAA, 17 CS%), though Ali Sanchez has drawn some recent starts against LHP and does not have enough of a sample to consider.
The Tigers have the third fewest stolen bases in the majors (30) with only McGonigle (11) above four. He has Detroit’s only Run via Stolen Base.
The Yankee defense is perfectly middle of the pack at 2 Runs Prevented and 3 OAA. The projected lineup sits at 5 FRV, due to the efforts of Bellinger (5), Goldschmidt (3), Anthony Volpe (3) and Chisholm Jr. (3), though Amed Rosario (-5) seems to undo most of that infield prowess when he starts at 3B against most LHPs.
The Yankees have the second best bullpen estimators over the last month (3.31 FIP, 3.79 xFIP, 3.49 SIERA) and are ranked 9th by BARTOLO on the season (3.73 wFIP). They should have just about everyone available on Tuesday as well.
Tigers vs Yankees Pick, Betting Analysis
Yankee Stadium enhances run scoring by 4% via current Statcast Park Factors. It has recently become more power friendly to RHBs (HRs 20% more than average) than LHBs (14% above average), though I suspect a lot of that is due to Aaron Judge’s prowess reaching the right field bleachers.
Temperatures in the low 80s, but with a double digit wind out to left field, as currently forecast (which could change), could boost the run environment a further 5% or so.
Mike Estabrook is one of the more pitcher friendly umpires in the league though, and could drop that back around 2% for a total boost closer to 7%. More on how we may be able to use him to our advantage below.
I have both pitchers below projected slightly below three without much of a gap between the two right now.
Even without Judge, I rate the Yankee offense slightly better, closer to a 110 wRC+ with the Tigers just above 100, via projected lineups.
The Yankee defense should be slightly better with base running not moving the needle at all for either team.
Bullpens are very close as well, with a slight edge to the Yankees.
Overall, I have the Yankees as small favorites, in line with the market for both the full game and F5.
I completely expect a pitchers’ duel here and can see some daylight at 7.5, but not at -120 or higher. It will remain a lean for now and perhaps actionable should it dip closer to -110, but I suspect it will drop to 7 before that happens.
I am going to post a play, but bear in mind, it’s one I would probably be wavering on a borderline edge if I weren’t writing this article, though there are supporting numbers.
Schlittler has a ridiculous 45.8 K% over the last month, but his 15.4 SwStr% over that span can support something in the mid-30s. He’s striking out LHBs (31.3%) even more than RHBs (28%) this year and with a total projection of 23 batters faced, I suspect he’ll see somewhere around 15 from the left-hand side.
The Tigers have been playing James Outman and his career 35.5 K% against RHP quite frequently lately. Carpenter, Greene, Torkelson and Hao-Yu Lee also reach 25% or higher against RHP this year.
The 23 batters Schlittler is projected to face average a 25.7 K% against RHP.
Yankee Stadium is neutral for strikeouts and the weather probably won’t benefit Schlittler in that respect, but Estabrook might. His presence behind the plate generally boosts strikeouts by an average of 4%.
I think it’s entirely reasonable to project Schlittler to strike out one-third of the batters he faces on Tuesday night under these conditions, which would get him to eight around half the time.
That should be good enough for the price currently being offered.
Pick: Cam Schlittler Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+110, 0.5u); Lean Under 7.5
