The Philadelphia Phillies host the Detroit Tigers on August 3, 2025. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Charlie Morton (5.42 ERA, 101 and 1/3 IP) will make his first start for the Tigers in Sunday's series finale, after being acquired on Thursday to fill the fifth spot in the rotation.
Morton will be opposed by dominant lefty Cristopher Sanchez (2.55 ERA, 130 and 2/3 IP), and as a result, the Phillies are heavy favorites to win this rubber-match on Sunday Night Baseball.
Find my MLB betting preview and Tigers vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Tigers vs Phillies Prediction
- Tigers vs Phillies pick: Cristopher Sanchez to Record A Win -105 (Bet365, Play to -115)
My Tigers vs Phillies best bet is on Sanchez to get the win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tigers vs Phillies Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -132 | 8 -117o / -104u | +153 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +108 | 8 -117o / -104u | -188 |
Tigers vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Charlie Morton (DET) | Stat | LHP Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-8 | W-L | 9-3 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.5 |
| 5.42 / 4.52 | ERA / xERA | 2.55 / 2.98 |
| 4.85 / 4.36 | FIP / xFIP | 2.86 / 2.81 |
| 1.56 | WHIP | 1.09 |
| 11.4 | K-BB% | 20.0 |
| 43.4 | GB% | 58.0 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 114 |
| 95 | Location+ | 98 |
Nick Martin’s Tigers vs Phillies Preview
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview: Morton Struggling Again
The Tigers are hoping to round out the rotation for a modest cost in acquiring Morton, who has been trending in the right direction to some extent after a treacherous start to the season.
In his first seven starts, Morton pitched to an ERA of 9.45 with an xFIP of 5.59. Since then, he's been much more stable, with a 3.88 ERA and 3.92 xFIP across 74 and 2/3 innings of work, which was certainly part of the veteran's appeal to the Tigers front office.
However, after posting fantastic results throughout May and June, Morton has begun to struggle once again in his most recent outings. Over his last five starts, Morton has pitched to an ERA of 4.91 and holds an xFIP of 4.89. He holds a strikeout minus walk rate of just 7.5% in those outings and allowed an xBA of .280. He also holds a Pitching+ rating of 92 across the last five starts.
The Tigers bullpen is in fairly good shape entering this matchup, as Will Vest is the only arm to have thrown over 20 pitches over the last 3 days. Detroit's bullpen has been ineffective over the last 30 days, as it has allowed an ERA of 5.82 across 85 innings of work and ranks 24th in FIP.
The Tigers have hit a rough patch offensively after a spectacular start to the season. Since July 1st, they rank 22nd in MLB with a wRC+ of 97. They have struck out at the second-highest rate in MLB during that span and rank 16th in hard-hit rate.
Based on the entirety of the season, they will be starting in their preferred split versus a lefty in this matchup, as they hold a wRC+ of 113 versus LHP; however, since July 1st, they hold a wRC+ of only 95 versus LHP.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Back Sanchez and an Improved Bullpen
Cristopher Sanchez enters this start coming off his worst outing of the season, as he allowed seven hits and four earned runs versus the Chicago White Sox on Monday. He has been remarkably consistent over the last two seasons and has consistently bounced back after his worst performances.
Sanchez has not allowed more than two earned runs in back-to-back starts since July 31st of last season and will be looking to continue that trend in this matchup.
He holds an xFIP of 2.81 and an xERA of 2.98 throughout the entirety of this season, and despite a small hiccup in his last outing, has been even more dominant of late.
In his last ten starts, Sanchez has pitched to an ERA of 1.90. He's still generating a ton of ground balls (60.7% ground-ball rate), but has also struck out 8.75 batters per nine while walking just 4% of batters.
After the addition of Jhoan Duran at the deadline, the Phillies bullpen is obviously one of the better units in baseball on paper though it has been somewhat shaky in this series and has struggled to an ERA of 4.52 over the last month of play.
Philadelphia is still patiently awaiting the return of Alec Bohm from the IL, but it features no other position players on the IL and has been performing strongly of late. Over the last month, the Phillies rank 12th in wRC+ and 11th in OPS.
For a second consecutive season, the Phillies have been drastically more productive at Citizens Bank Park, as they hold a wRC+ of 115 at home this season, compared to a mark of 96 on the road.
Tigers vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis
Sanchez has been one of baseball's most consistent starters since the second half of last season, and it's no surprise to see that he's really not strung back-to-back starts together. He's been entirely dominant over the last two months of play and gets a solid matchup Sunday versus a Tigers lineup that has been far less productive of late.
It continues to look like the Phillies have a significant home-field advantage and the current core loves playing there. After posting a record of 54-27 at home last season, they are 34-20 at their ground this season and are only one game above .500 on the road in that span.
Morton certainly may have an added level of motivation in this matchup as he makes his first start with his new side, but aside from that, it's hard to expect an overly sharp outing given his recent level of play.
The Phillies should have a good chance of spotting Sanchez some early run support off of Morton and giving him a chance of leaving in line for his 10th win of the season in this matchup.
At -115 or better, I see value in betting Sanchez to earn the win on Sunday Night Baseball.
Pick: Cristopher Sanchez to Record a Win -105 (Bet365, Play to -115)
Moneyline
At -185, there appears to be value in betting the Phillies to win this game, although I prefer betting Sanchez to record a win at -105 if possible.
Run Line (Spread)
There looks to be some value in betting the Phillies to cover the run-line at its current price of +110.
Over/Under
A total of 8 seems fair given Sunday's starting pitching matchup.
