Diamondbacks vs Phillies Odds & Prediction: Alec Bohm Set for Big Day?
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Phillies infielder Alec Bohm.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks head to the City of Brotherly Love to take on the Philadelphia Phillies on Monday night.
- The Phillies enter as big favorites, but Nick Martin sees more betting value on an Alec Bohm player prop instead of a side.
- Check out Martin's full betting preview and pick for Diamondbacks vs. Phillies below.
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+180 | 9 +100 / -120 | +1.5 -110 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -225 | 9 +100 / -120 | -1.5 -110 |
Zack Wheeler will start Monday for the Phillies as he hopes to better his 4.03 ERA and kick off a quietly important series against the Diamondbacks in strong fashion.
The Snakes hold the top Wild Card spot in the NL at 27-20 and are a team Philly would like to catch with a tough path to a division title.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Despite a 4.56 team ERA, Arizona has played to a 27-20 record and remains well in the mix for a surprising playoff berth in late May. Playing at Chase Field doesn't help its team ERA, but it's still a credit to the D-backs' speedy young offensive corps that they sit so high in the standings.
Left-hander Tommy Henry will start Monday for Arizona. He has pitched to a 4.69 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in his first 27 innings of the season. His xFIP mark of 6.30 is concerning as well.
Henry has pitched to a QOPA of 4.08. His lack of elite stuff has been a particular concern against right-handed batters. He has struck out just 13% of the right-handed batters he's faced this season, which is the fourth-worst mark in the league among pitchers who have thrown at least 17 innings.
Righties are slugging .488 against Henry, with a wOBA of .363.
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia's 26th-ranked team wRC+ versus left-handed pitching is quite concerning, and it offers some hope for Henry in this spot.
However, Phillies infielder Alec Bohm could take advantage of this situation with his dominant splits against left-handed pitching. Bohm has slugged .490 versus left-handers this season after slugging .541 against lefties last season.
If we exclude at-bats against right-handed pitchers, Bohm ranks significantly above average in most meaningful indicators of future success at the plate.
He owns a hard-hit rate of 45% against righties, and it's unlikely he strikes out more than 13% of the time versus Henry. That could be a solid recipe for some extra-base hits.
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Betting Pick
Wheeler is due for far better results and still deserves to be considered a top starting option. That's being baked into the number, though, so even though I believe Wheeler will start to perform better, I don't see much value with the Phillies at -230.
Bohm has been hitting the ball very effectively entering this matchup and has a number of splits working in his favor against a pitcher like Henry. Over 1.5 total bases for Bohm at +135 is a great price, and I would back him to record two bases down to +130.
Pick: Alec Bohm Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135)
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