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MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Diamondbacks vs. Phillies: Can Wheeler Extend Philadelphia’s Winning Streak?

MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Diamondbacks vs. Phillies: Can Wheeler Extend Philadelphia’s Winning Streak? article feature image

Rob Tringali/Getty Images. Pictured: Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler.

  • The Phillies have been red hot and will look to extend their winning streak against the Diamondbacks.
  • Arizona will send Madison Bumgarner to the mound, but Philadelphia will counter with Zack Wheeler, who has been tough at home this season
  • Jules Posner breaks down the matchup and provides a best bet below.

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Odds

Diamondbacks Odds+190
Phillies Odds-225
Time4:05 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Philadelphia Phillies look to clinch a series victory and notch their ninth straight win on Saturday afternoon against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Friday night’s game did have some late inning drama as the Diamondbacks cut a 6-0 deficit to one run, but Arizona could not finish the job and eventually lost 7-5.

Zack Wheeler makes his return from the paternity list and gets the home start against Madison Bumgarner in a battle of two former San Francisco Giants top pitching prospects.

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Arizona Diamondbacks: Will Offense Get Back on Track?

The Diamondbacks’ offense has had some pretty extreme runs — especially on the road. There was a stretch in May where they were a top five road offense, but over the past three weeks, they have plummeted to 18th in MLB with a 96 team wRC+.

Saturday’s starter, Madison Bumgarner, finally seemed to show some long overdue road regression in his last start against the Cincinnati Reds. Overall, Bumgarner’s numbers are still pretty solid, but his 5.18 road FIP seems to paint a more realistic picture of who Bumgarner is today.

Additionally, the Diamondbacks’ bullpen has been among the league’s worst over the past few weeks. They have the 10th highest ERA and the 4th highest FIP over that time frame.

Philadelphia Phillies: Wheeler has been Dominant at Home

The Phillies have averaged 7.5 runs per game during their eight game winning streak. However, their biggest weakness seems to be against left-handed pitchers at home.

Over the past month, the Phillies have posted only a 94 team wRC+ against LHP at home, which is 20th in MLB over that span. On the other hand, when you’re hot, you’re hot.

Speaking of which, Zack Wheeler with not only have the advantage of “dad strength” behind him in his return from the paternity list, but he’ll also be getting the start at home where he’s dominated over his Phillies career.

Wheeler has posted a 1.73 ERA and a 2.21 FIP over 36 and 1/3 innings at home this season.

Furthermore, the Phillies bullpen has been in the middle of an upswing … kind of. Okay, so the bullpen has the 12th highest FIP over the past three weeks, but they have the 8th best ERA over that same time period. With Wheeler on the mound, there’s a good chance they can get some low pressure innings to help pad their numbers.

Diamondbacks-Phillies Pick

The Phillies are in the middle of a fun run right now and as much as the Diamondbacks want to play the spoiler, the numbers don’t show that they have any edges in Saturday’s match up.

The Phillies’ moneyline is -220 or less, but the runline is still a decent value at around -110. If it stays in that neighborhood the runline should be the play tomorrow.

Pick: Phillies RL

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