MLB Odds & Picks for Dodgers vs. Giants: Why to Fade San Francisco at Home

MLB Odds & Picks for Dodgers vs. Giants: Why to Fade San Francisco at Home article feature image

Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: James Outman #77 of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

  • NL West rivals meet on Monday night as the Dodgers and Giants meet in San Francisco.
  • Los Angeles left-hander Andrew Heaney draws the start, but is San Francisco healthy enough to take advantage of the matchup?
  • MLB betting analyst Kenny Ducey previews Monday night's NL West matchup, including updated odds, picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Giants at 9:45 p.m. ET.

Dodgers vs. Giants Odds

Dodgers Odds-140
Giants Odds+120
Over/Under8 (-110 / -110)
Time9:45 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The last time the Los Angeles Dodgers saw the San Francisco Giants, LA had a ton of fun at San Francisco's expense. The Dodgers put up 25 runs in a four-game sweep of the Giants, ripping the heart out of their Nation League West rivals and likely making the decision for them to sell at the trade deadline.

Now, just over a week later, the two teams meet again — this time in San Francisco. Should we expect anything different? Let's get into this matchup.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Since sweeping the Giants, things have been tricky for the Dodgers. They dropped two of three to the Nationals and nearly split with the Rockies, earning a series win thanks to a one-run margin on Friday.

Still, LA sits in third place in wRC+ during the last week and has hardly put a foot wrong. Its 9.3% walk rate over the last seven days is solid, and a 17.1% strikeout rate is simply extraordinary. Playing at Coors Field certainly helps, but so does a 42.4% hard-hit rate with the above numbers.

Now that you can rest assured that the Dodgers are still hitting, let's talk about Andrew Heaney, who starts on Monday night. With a 4.60 career ERA at 31 years old, it's easy to say the former No. 9 pick in the MLB Draft has been a bust. Nevertheless, the Dodgers may have unlocked a bit of Heaney's potential.

The left-hander has only pitched 19 1/3 innings due to injury, but what we've seen thus far has been impressive. He owns a high 34.6% strikeout rate and has only allowed one run in his starts against the Twins, Reds, Guardians and Nationals. Walks have still been an issue, but the strikeout numbers could prove vital as a mitigating force.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants are a mess. I'm not even talking about their 11-17 July record; I'm talking about the state of their roster.

San Francisco is currently dealing with injuries to Thairo Estrada, Brandon Crawford and Joc Pederson — just to name a few. On top of this, players like Brandon Belt and Mike Yazstremski have been incredibly disappointing.

So, it's hard to read into the Giants' solid numbers against lefties when you consider so many important bats are missing. Furthermore those numbers are padded by some nice early results when the Giants' reliable names were producing.

Luckily for the Giants, there's Logan Webb. Monday's starter enters with a 2.91 ERA in 130 innings, in spite of a low 20.6% strikeout rate. The junk-baller has been decent at pitching to contact, but there's room for improvement with a 38.2% hard-hit rate and 3.54 xERA.

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Dodgers vs. Giants Pick

The Dodgers are eighth in weighted runs per 100 sliders and first in weighted runs per 100 changeups, according to FanGraphs. They're tearing up opposing pitching and hardly striking out. While I understand the hesitations of reading into a short number of Andrew Heaney innings, I do think this line is a little off.

The Giants are simply missing too many crucial bats. Even in a win on Sunday night, San Francisco was unable to get any big blows from its better players, winning with an assault of walks and softly-hit balls.

I have serious doubts about this offense, and it's also not like Webb has pitched as well as he did last season.

Pick: Dodgers ML (-140)

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