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Giants vs. Dodgers MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back San Francisco in First 5 Innings (Saturday, July 23)

Giants vs. Dodgers MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back San Francisco in First 5 Innings (Saturday, July 23) article feature image
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Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: San Francisco Giants pitcher Alex Wood

Giants vs. Dodgers Odds

Giants Odds +150
Dodgers Odds -178
Over/Under 8 (+100 / -120)
Time 7:15 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

With back-to-back wins to start this four-game rivalry set, the Dodgers have now won 17 of their past 19 contests, and they’re running away with the NL West.

Los Angeles is favored to win yet again Saturday with Julio Urias, who has an 8-6 record and 2.89 ERA throughout 96 innings this season, drawing the start.

San Francisco sits 1.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot in the NL, and will hand the ball to Alex Wood looking to find a crucial win.

Can Wood continue his strong recent form on Saturday?

San Francisco Giants

Alex Wood enters this contest in the midst of some significantly better form; over his past three starts, he has a 0.54 ERA and a stellar WHIP of just 0.73.

Wood’s pitches have rated better this month as well, as his QOPA has risen to 4.36 throughout the past three contests compared to a season-long mark of 4.10 prior.

It’s not like Wood has been in poor form throughout the season either, as his 3.13 xFIP and strong K/BB ratio have always suggested he was due for some better results moving forward.

The Giants have again been far more potent versus left-handed pitching this season, and have hit to a sixth-best wRC+ of 115 with a wOBA of .330.

Gabe Kapler’s lineup’s top names are always going to have more favorable splits against lefties to begin with, but beyond that, effective usage of a strong platoon has again made his order play better than it may otherwise.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Contrarily the Dodgers have hit to less favorable splits against lefties, as all together on the season Los Angeles now holds the top wRC+ in the league versus right-handed pitching, but just an eighth-best mark of 114 versus lefties.

Which is obviously still an elite mark, and right with San Francisco, but the offensive advantage held by the Dodgers entering this game may not be as notable as one might expect.

Same goes for Julio Urias, who may not offer as significant a pitching edge as it may seem over Wood.

Urias’ xFIP of 3.83 certainly suggests his play has been exaggerated by some excellent defense and solid luck compared to Wood, though it’s fair to say that his squad is always going to field significantly more effectively than the Giants.

Giants-Dodgers Pick

It’s intimidating to fade Los Angeles considering just how hot the lineup has been of late, but I do feel that Los Angeles is too favored in this spot considering the kind of form Wood has offered, as well as the Giants’ reasonable chances of getting some runs from Urias.

For a massive sample size dating back all of last season, the Giants have been very successful against left-handed pitching, and they could certainly find some success against Urias in this spot.

For the Giants just to tie the first 5 innings (+0.5), we are getting close to even money, and I see value backing them to hang around early considering this lineup’s numbers versus lefties and Wood’s strong recent form. I would play +0.5 down to -115.

Pick:  San Francisco Giants First 5 Innings +0.5 -105 (Play to -115)

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