Giants vs Phillies Picks Today | MLB Odds, Prediction for Monday, August 21

Giants vs Phillies Picks Today | MLB Odds, Prediction for Monday, August 21 article feature image
Credit:

Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images. Pictured: J.T. Realmuto and Aaron Nola.

Giants vs. Phillies Odds

Giants Logo
Monday, Aug 21
6:40 p.m. ET
MLB Network
Phillies Logo
Giants Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+1.5
-176
8.5
-106o / -114u
+118
Phillies Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-1.5
+146
8.5
-106o / -114u
-138
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
FanDuel Logo

The Philadelphia Phillies will open an important three-game set with the San Francisco Giants while holding a two-game lead over them for the top NL wild-card spot.

The Phillies will start Aaron Nola (4.58 ERA, 153 and 1/3 IP) versus opener Scott Alexander (4.06 ERA, 37 and 2/3 IP) and are priced as -165 favorites.


Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

Header First Logo

San Francisco Giants

Alexander will open this contest and likely lead in to Sean Manaea for the bulk of the game, followed by a strong Giants bullpen. That combination might be a little tougher than it sounds, as Manaea has been in excellent form in the second half of the season.

Alexander has pitched to a 3.63 xERA with a 4.02 xFIP. He has allowed hard contact 33.1% of the time and features a Pitching+ rating of 97.

Manaea has pitched to a 3.42 ERA with a WHIP of 1.08 in 23 2/3 innings since the All-Star break. He has thrown to an xFIP of 3.81 this season and has seen that mark improve drastically since his first 10 outings. He owns a Stuff+ of 94, and a Location+ of 101.

The Giants' bullpen continues to be a strength as well, as you would expect from a team locked into a playoff spot despite owning relatively modest offensive results. In 166 1/3 innings since the All-Star break, Giants relievers have pitched to a seventh-best 3.43 ERA, with an xFIP of 4.16.

Over the last 30 days, the Giants' offense has hit to a wRC+ of 71, with a league-low hard-contact rate of 28.8%. They will be in their better split versus a righty in Nola. They own a wRC+ of 95 versus right-handed pitching this season.

Phone With the Action App Open
The must-have app for MLB bettors
The best MLB betting scoreboard
Free picks from proven pros
Live win probabilities for your bets
Header First Logo

Philadelphia Phillies

Nola has struggled to an ERA of 5.24 and WHIP of 1.31 in 34 1/3 innings since the All-Star break, but his underlying metrics remain solid and he should be due to run better on batted balls over a larger sample. His xERA has trended upward to its current mark of 3.87, but it still is a clear case of his tough luck.

His stuff still rates well better than league average (106 Stuff+) and his command has been strong as well (107 Location+) despite allowing 1.58 HR/9. Nola has stranded just 65.6% of baserunners this season, which is 8% below his career average clip.

The Phillies have a wRC+ of 101 over the last 30 days, which is 16th in the majors. A well higher-than-average strikeout rate of 23.8% has been the main concern. They have hit to a wRC+ of 102 versus left-handed pitching this season.

Header First Logo

Giants vs. Phillies

Betting Pick & Prediction

Manaea has stabilized throughout the second half and seems likely to continue finding better results moving forward. He will be supported by a strong Giants bullpen, which could offer the Giants a chance to hang around in this contest despite their shaky offensive play.

Nola still deserves to be viewed as an above-average starter, and this sets up as a great spot for him to bounce back with a better outing at home versus a Giants offense that has been drastically worse than average, even in their better splits versus right-handed pitching.

This quietly sets up as a potentially lower-scoring matchup, especially with weather conditions likely to be slightly favorable to pitchers at first pitch.

Betting the under at +100 is my favorite play on the game, and I would bet anything better than -110.

Pick: Under 8.5 +100 (DraftKings)

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.