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Giants vs. Phillies MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Back the Lefty Bats to Hit the Over in Philadelphia (Monday, May 30)

Giants vs. Phillies MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Back the Lefty Bats to Hit the Over in Philadelphia (Monday, May 30) article feature image
Credit:

Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images. Pictured: Nick Castellanos

  • The Phillies host the Giants as short favorites on Monday afternoon.
  • The Phillies host the Giants as short favorites on Monday afternoon. With both teams coming off of dramatic victories on Sunday, which side has the edge?
  • Nick Shlain breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Giants vs. Phillies Odds

Giants Odds -102
Phillies Odds -116
Over/Under 8.5
Time 4:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Philadelphia Phillies and the San Francisco Giants are two teams with postseason aspirations that also find themselves at least 7.5 games back in their respective divisions.

The Phillies finished their road trip with a dramatic victory on Sunday Night Baseball last night as outfielder Nick Castellanos hit a game-winning home run late in the game, and now they return home for a series with the Giants.

The Giants’ dramatic win on national television came earlier in the day Sunday as they beat the Reds in the morning game on Apple TV, thanks to a game-winning home run by third baseman Evan Longoria. Who will get the job done in this Memorial Day afternoon contest?

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Will the Giants’ Lefties Step Up Against Gibson?

Kyle Gibson hasn’t faced the Giants yet this season, but he’s been solid this year as he has a 3.66 xFIP, 22% K%, 7% BB%, and 49% Ground Ball Rate this year. Gibson has been consistent lately as he’s completed at least five innings and allowed no more than two earned runs in three of his last four starts. He’s also struck out at least seven batters in his last two starts.

The Giants enter play Monday fifth in all of baseball in runs scored. San Francisco likes to play the matchups and will likely try to attack Gibson with as many as seven left-handed batters in the lineup as possible. That might sound like a good idea, but he hasn’t allowed much power to left-handed hitters at all this year as his ISO allowed is .074.

It might not be a big strikeout game for Gibson here as his K% goes from 28% against right-handed batters to 12% against left-handed batters, but he should go at least five innings and keep his team in the game.


Phillies Lefties Should Hit for Power Against Webb

Logan Webb made a name for himself in the playoffs last year, and he’s backed it up with a 3.54 ERA so far in nine starts this season. Webb is similar to Gibson because he’s also a solid right-handed pitcher who gets a lot of ground balls, but the main difference in this matchup is his power prevention numbers this year against left-handed hitters.

Against left-handed hitters, Webb has allowed a .198 ISO this year. The Phillies lineup also has the left-handed power to take advantage of this matchup as Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Odubel Herrera each have ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching this season. Webb also has a 13% K% and 9% BB% against left-handed hitters this season. The Phillies should have an advantage with those left-handed hitters at the plate.

Giants-Phillies Pick

I like the over on 8.5 runs at -110 on FanDuel here. Even with Webb on the mound, the Phillies are at home and have the advantage against him with their lefty power bats. I expect Gibson to do okay here, but he should give up a few runs, and the Phillies bullpen has struggled this year.

The model I use projects this game for over nine runs, so I like betting the over better than betting the Phillies moneyline at -116 in what I think is a coin flip.

Pick: Over 8.5 -110

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