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Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Picks, Predictions: Target This Total for Best Value On Friday (May 13)

Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Picks, Predictions: Target This Total for Best Value On Friday (May 13) article feature image
Credit:

Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images. Pictured: Minnesota Twins standout Byron Buxton.

  • The Minnesota Twins welcome the Cleveland Guardians to town for their AL Central Division clash.
  • The Twins are solid -165 home favorites, but baseball analyst Nick Shlain is targeting the game total.
  • Check out below which side he's backing on the over/under in this meeting.

Guardians vs. Twins Odds

Guardians Odds +145
Twins Odds -165
Over/Under 8
Time 8:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Minnesota Twins have lost three games in a row, but still sit atop the American League Central division with an 18-14 record.

The Cleveland Guardians went 7-3 in their last 10 games to get to .500 at 15-15, two games back and tied for second in the division with the Chicago White Sox.

That said, the Twins enter Friday’s matchup as solid moneyline favorites at -165 odds. So, who will get the job done in the opener of this important Central Division series matchup?

Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians have been carried by their offense this season, as their 145 runs scored is tied for fifth in all of baseball.

Twins starter Sonny Gray has a 3.48 ERA on the season and threw four shutout innings in his last start, but that was against a weak Oakland Athletics lineup. He also has a 4.68 xFIP.

Gray has mustered a 28% K% and 11% B% this year. He’s walking too many batters and due to give up some runs, according to his xFIP. He’s also allowed a .175 ISO to left-handed hitters and .200 ISO to right-handed hitters.

That doesn’t bode well against facing a lineup featuring Jose Ramirez (.305), Josh Naylor (.202) and Franmil Reyes (.232), who each have ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching since the start of last year.

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Minnesota Twins

The Twins enter the game 20th in the league with 120 runs this season, but also have a good matchup against Cleveland starter Aaron Civale. He has allowed 16 earned runs in his last three starts, leading to a 9.45 ERA this season.

Civale’s xFIP isn’t quite as bad, but it isn’t good at 5.71 this year. He has a 22% K% and 6% BB%, which are solid, but he’s given up power to both side with a .189 ISO allowed to left-handed hitters and a .265 ISO allowed to right-handed hitters.

Byron Buxton has a great matchup here against Civale, as his ISO against right-handed pitchers since the start of last season is .347 overall.

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Guardians vs. Twins Pick

I like the total clearing eight runs here.

Neither starting pitcher has been very impressive this season. Civale’s ERA is more than nine and Gray has yet to complete five innings after three starts.

Cleveland’s offense has been great and it’s a good matchup for Buxton, who is Minnesota’s star.

The model I use projects this game to hit nine runs, so I’m backing the over clearing eight runs as my top pick.

Pick: Total Over 8 Runs (-110)

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