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Guardians vs. White Sox MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Giolito, Chicago (Friday, July 22)

Guardians vs. White Sox MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Giolito, Chicago (Friday, July 22) article feature image
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Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images. Pictured: Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito.

  • The Guardians take on the White Sox in Friday's AL showdown.
  • Lucas Giolito gets the ball for Chicago, which enters the game as solid -155 favorites.
  • Nicholas Martin breaks down the matchup below and details why he's backing the host to win outright as plus-money odds.

Guardians vs. White Sox Odds

Guardians Odds +125
White Sox Odds -155
Over/Under 8.5
Time 8:10 p.m. ET
TV Apple TV+
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Cleveland Guardians will head to Guaranteed Rate Field on Friday for a crucial four-game set with the Chicago White Sox, with each club attempting to sneak in the third and final American League Wild Card spot.

Cal Quantrill will take the mound for the Guardians and will be looking to improve on a 3.76 ERA through 100 innings to start his campaign. He will be opposed by Lucas Giolito, who similar to the White Sox, has been a notable disappointment with a 4.69 ERA in the season’s first half.

That said, will Giolito lead Chicago to an important victory as the club pushes for a postseason berth? Let’s take a look below to see where we can find some betting value ahead of this showdown.

Cleveland Guardians

Contrary to his opponent being Giolito, Quantrill has began to show worse form of late with a 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over his last six starts.

Those are closer to the kind of numbers we should expect based upon Quantrill’s’ 4.52 xERA this season.

The White Sox crushed Quantrill in the first two matchups of the season as well, as he has allowed an ERA of 6.00 and 18 hits throughout 12 innings.

Offensively, the Guardians have slowed over the last month, with a wRC+ of 100, with a woba of .308 this season.

Chicago White Sox

Primed at age 28, Giolito entered the campaign with high expectations after pitching to an 3.24 ERA over the last three seasons and an xERA which suggests he could have fared even better.

So, Giolito’s poor early form this season certainly came as a surprise, as he has pitched to an 4.49 xERA with a significantly worse xwoba overall.

Over his last four starts, Giolito has started to look more true to form. However, pitching to a 2.92 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP, which appears to be no fluke looking towards his xwoba over the last 100 PAs, which has improved.

Giolito’s QOPA has also improved over those four starts to a 4.42 mark, which is nearly identical to his season-long 4.41 number from a year ago.

Offensively, the White Sox have began to trend in the right direction as well, with a 102 wRC+ and .309 woba over the last 30 days. And we know when healthy, this lineup is going to be dangerous moving forward.

The status of Luis Robert is unclear, so he’s still considered a game-time decision. Staying tuned for the official lineup is certainly a good idea.

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Guardians-White Sox Pick

Although Cleveland is sporting a stronger record and Quantrill has managed better numbers than Giolito, I still think Chicago holds value at -155 odds via the moneyline ahead of this meeting.

The White Sox are trending in the right direction after a messy start to the season, and I believe Chicago will have a significantly more potent lineup moving forward than Cleveland.

Quantrill has struggled with the White Sox this season, so I think the hosts will again find some hard contact off him and offer Giolito some solid run support before a now-healthier bullpen takes over.

Giolito has seen improvements toward both his stuff-plus ratings and xwoba over the last month, plus he seems to be starting to show closer to what we expected entering the season.

At +125 odds, I’m going to back the White Sox to cover the Run Line as my top betting pick. However, I do feel waiting until game time to confirm the Chicago lineup is reasonable since the price has steadily improved since opening.

Pick: Chicago -1.5 (+125)

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