The Baltimore Orioles host the Houston Astros on August 22, 2025. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SCHN.
The Orioles enter as -114 home favorites with a 9.5 run total.
Find my MLB betting preview and Astros vs Orioles prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Astros vs Orioles Prediction
- Astros vs Orioles pick: Orioles ML (play to -140)
My Astros vs Orioles best bet is on the Orioles moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Astros vs Orioles Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +139 | 9.5 101o / -122u | -106 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -172 | 9.5 101o / -122u | -114 |
Astros vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU) | Stat | LHP Cade Povich (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | W-L | 2-6 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 6.90 / 5.27 | ERA / xERA | 4.98 / 5.62 |
| 5.87 / 4.97 | FIP / xFIP | 3.96 / 3.84 |
| 1.74 | WHIP | 1.44 |
| 1.7 | K-BB% | 3.0 |
| 42.3 | GB% | 39.7 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 92 | Location+ | 101 |
Sean Paul’s Astros vs Orioles Preview
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Hanging by a Thread
The Astros are barely clinging to their lead in the AL West, and they entered a pretty dangerous series in Baltimore.
Houston will hand the ball to Lance McCullers Jr., who has returned from the injured list, where he has spent most of the last four seasons.
McCullers looked lost in his first 11 starts of the year, posting a troubling 6.90 ERA. He's fresh off the injured list stint, so maybe the time off will correct some issues. We can’t point to any bad luck for McCullers, as he also posted an ugly 5.27 xERA and 5.87 FIP.
What made McCullers so special in his prime was his elite strikeout ability paired with his ability to limit the long ball. After all these years, he’s still punching out 10.15 batters per nine.
However, his ability to limit the long ball is now a thing of the past, as he surrenders 1.82 HR/9. Prior to this year, McCullers had never allowed worse than 0.84 HR/9.
If McCullers continues to allow bombs while walking over five batters per nine, then he’s an instant fade.
The Astros are clearly missing a big bopper in the middle of the lineup to carry the lineup. Well, that guy exists in Yordan Alvarez, but he's just beginning his minor league rehab.
In August, the presence of the missing Alvarez is even more noticeable. Houston ranks 26th with an 81 wRC+ and just snapped a three-game scoreless streak. Power is the real problem, hitting just 19 home runs in August.
They just have far too much dead weight in their lineup. Cam Smith is hitting .163 with a 15 wRC+ this month, and Jesus Sanchez is hitting .150 with a 20 wRC+. Plus, three outfield options — Chas McCormick, Jacob Melton, and Taylor Trammell join Smith and Sanchez in the sub .200 club. The only outfielder who isn't hitting below .200 in August is Mauricio Dubon and he has a 54 wRC+.
I don't trust this Astros lineup unless Jose Altuve, Christian Walker, and Jeremy Pena get rolling again. If the bottom of the lineup is this bad, the top of the lineup has to be great.
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Fridays with Cade
The Orioles have the upper hand in the pitching department here with Cade Povich taking the mound. Povich has some very odd stats to digest — he has a 4.98 ERA. That's not great, but it's not awful. Then you see a concerning 5.62 xERA, but look a little deeper and see a more appealing 3.96 FIP and 3.84 xFIP.
Povich does have some pretty worrisome batted-ball metrics. He ranks in the fifth percentile or worse in hard hit rate, barrel rate, and average exit velocity.
That said, I feel decent about backing Povich here. He faced the Astros last week and punched out ten batters in five innings while allowing three runs. That's the only game in the series that Baltimore lost, but Povich earned a no-decision.
He punches out just shy of ten batters per nine, and the Astros struggled to put the ball in play against him last time.
I like to keep things fair around here. Just because I'm backing the Orioles here doesn't mean I can't acknowledge that they have a 76 wRC+ and rank one spot lower than the Astros in August. It hasn't been pretty, but I feel better about the current state of Baltimore's roster turning it around.
The Orioles have a patient plate approach, drawing walks at an 8.1% rate this month. If they can force McCullers, who loves throwing his big 12-6 curve almost half the time, to throw strikes, they'll put up a solid offensive showing.
Plus, Gunner Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Ryan Mountcastle each have a wRC+ better than 130 this month. The only player on Houston's roster who can say the same is Carlos Correa. The top-end hitting production favors the home team.
Astros vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
I just don't believe in this Astros team at all. If it wasn't for the nostalgia effect, I doubt McCullers is still in the rotation. And their offense is very questionable.
Not to mention, the Orioles are very hot right now. They took a series in Houston last week and snagged a two-game sweep in Boston over the Red Sox.
This is a good spot to back Baltimore, who lost the series opener. Povich should provide five or six solid innings, and I can't say I expect the same from McCullers.
Pick: Orioles ML (play to -140)
Moneyline
I like Baltimore here.
Run Line (Spread)
I have no play on the run line.
Over/Under
I'm not interested in the total for this game.
Astros vs Orioles Betting Trends
