The Cleveland Guardians host the Toronto Blue Jays on September 3, 2026. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SNET.
The Blue Jays are favored by -112 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Guardians are -107 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Blue Jays vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Blue Jays vs Guardians Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Guardians Pick: Guardians Moneyline (-104, 0.52u | Bet to -113)
My Blue Jays vs Guardians best bet is on Cleveland to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Guardians Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +153 | 8 -108o / -112u | -112 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -186 | 8 -108o / -112u | -107 |
- Blue Jays vs Guardians moneyline: Blue Jays -112, Guardians -107
- Blue Jays vs Guardians over/under: 8 (-108o / -112u)
- Blue Jays vs Guardians spread: Blue Jays -1.5 (+153), Guardians +1.5 (-186)
Blue Jays vs Guardians Probable Pitchers
| Jose Soriano (RHP, TOR) | Stat | Tanner Bibee (RHP, CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-7 | W-L | 5-14 |
| 2.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 3.45/4.47 | ERA / xERA | 3.88/4.29 |
| 3.78/3.75 | FIP / xFIP | 4.56/4.40 |
| 13.0% | K-BB% | 12.3% |
| 51.7% | GB% | 36.7% |
| .284 | BABIP | .253 |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 104 | Location+ | 101 |
Blue Jays vs Guardians MLB Betting Preview
Both of these pitchers have estimator running about half a run worse than their respective ERAs.
For Jose Soriano, that’s a 3.45 ERA being backed by a 3.50 dERA to 4.46 xERA range. The 51.7 GB% is well below his last two seasons.
For Tanner Bibee, it’s a 3.88 ERA in front of a 3.91 Bot ERA (101 Pitching+) to 4.71 dERA range. Both his 12.3 K-BB% and .253 BABIP are career lows.
These pitchers have nearly the same contact profiles (Soriano 7.8% Barrels/BBE and 39 HardHit%, Bibee 8.1% Barrels/BBE and 39.9 HardHit%).
However, the biggest problem for both pitchers has been left-handed batters:
LHBs vs Soriano: .317 wOBA, .344 xwOBA
LHBs vs Bibee .320 wOBA, .340 xwOBA
Both have held RHBs below the .300 mark (both wOBA and xwOBA).
The problem for Soriano is that the Guardians have LHBs in abundance. He could see anywhere between seven and nine, depending on how the Guardians handle the day after night game catching situation (I’m currently projecting the catcher who did not catch on Wednesday night, Austin Hedges).
The Blue Jays could turn to Brandon Valenzuela (Kirk caught Wednesday night) to Nathan Lukes, Brett Bateman, Jesus Sanchez and Andres Gimenez. Not a very scary group. In fact, Valenzuela has the highest wRC+ of the group against RHP (122).
The projected lineup averages a 101 wRC+ against RHP this year and 85 wRC+ over the last 30 days, compared to 102 and 95 for the Guardians. However, their biggest difference in the 21-point home/road gap (109 to 88).
Both teams have quality defenses with Toronto projecting for 15 more FRV (Fielding Run Value), but Cleveland bullpen estimators are nearly a full run better since the deadline, ranking 7th best in the league to Toronto’s 27th. BARTOLO sees them more evenly matched on the season.
The Guardians also project a 9 BRR (Base Running Runs) edge.
I believe Soriano having to face a lineup full of LHBs is going to be a big problem here. In fact, of the seven LHBs projected, Jose Ramirez (83 wRC+) has been the worst of them this year with only Angel Genao (87) also below average.
I see the Guardians as more moderate favorites here and NOVIG is currently floating 51% (-104), though traditional books are also floating a playable number as of this writing.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline (-104, 0.52u | Bet to -113)
