Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Thursday, September 3.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Guardians -104, 0.52u | Bet to -113
- Lean Cubs 100, 0.5u | Bet to -108
- Lean Brewers/Cubs Under 8.5 (-114), 0.57u | Bet through 8.5
- Royals (F5) +105, 0.5u | Bet to even
- Cardinals +257, 0.5u | Bet to +200
Blue Jays @ Guardians Picks
Both of these pitchers have estimators running about half a run worse than their respective ERAs.
For Jose Soriano, that’s a 3.45 ERA being backed by a 3.50 dERA to 4.46 xERA range. The 51.7 GB% is well below his last two seaons.
For Tanner Bibee, it’s a 3.88 ERA in front of a 3.91 Bot ERA (101 Pitching+) to 4.71 dERA range. Both his 12.3 K-BB% and .253 BABIP are career lows.
These pitchers have nearly the same contact profiles (Soriano 7.8% Barrels/BBE and 39 HardHit%, Bibee 8.1% Barrels/BBE and 39.9 HardHit%).
However, the biggest problem for both pitchers has been left-handed batters:
LHBs vs Soriano: .317 wOBA, .344 xwOBA
LHBs vs Bibee .320 wOBA, .340 xwOBA
Both have held RHBs below the .300 mark (both wOBA and xwOBA).
The problem for Soriano is that the Guardians have LHBs in abundance. He could see anywhere between seven and nine, depending on how the Guardians handle the day after night game catching situation (I’m currently projecting the catcher who did not catch on Wednesday night, Austin Hedges).
The Blue Jays could Brandon Valenzuela (Kirk caught Wednesday night) to Nathan Lukes, Brett Bateman, Jesus Sanchez and Andres Gimenez. Not a very scary group. In fact, Valenzuela has the highest wRC+ of the group against RHP (122).
The projected lineup averages a 101 wRC+ against RHP this year and 85 wRC+ over the last 30 days, compared to 102 and 95 for the Guardians. However, their biggest difference in the 21 point home road gap (109 to 88).
Both teams have quality defenses with Toronto projecting for 15 more FRV (Fielding Run Value), but Cleveland bullpen estimators are nearly a full run better since the deadline, ranking 7th best in the league to Toronto’s 27th. BARTOLO sees them more evenly matched on the season.
The Guardians also project a 9 BRR (Base Running Runs) edge.
I believe Soriano having to face a lineup full of LHBs is going to be a big problem here. In fact, of the seven LHBs projected, Jose Ramirez (83 wRC+) has been the worst of them this year with only Angel Genao (87) also below average.
I see the Guardians as more moderate favorites here and NOVIG is currently floating 51% (-104), though traditional books are also floating a playable number as of this writing.
Pick: Guardians -104, 0.52u | Bet to -113
Brewers @ Cubs Picks
Logan Henderson has five straight quality starts, allowing exactly three total runs over his last three, while completing seven innings in two of his last three.
He has a 25.2 K-BB% on the season with only two starts below a 20 K-BB%. His hard hit rate is below 40% (38.4%) and even though his 2.48 ERA is exaggerated by a .218 BABIP and 88.5 LOB%, he has just one estimators above 3.3 (3.85 dERA).
There’s just one tiny problem. Henderson has just a 28.6 GB%. He is generating popups at a 14% rate on fly balls, but he’s also allowing 8.6% Barrels/BBE, which is league average. The fact that he’s allowing contact at all on only 65% of plate appearances is great, but we’re talking about Wrigley here.
BARTOLO’s Cubs’ projected lineup is mauling the ball. They average a 126 wRC+ at home, 113 wRC+ and .178 ISO vs RHP and 132 wRC+ over the last month.
The projected Milwaukee defense for the batted balls Henderson does allow that stay in the park is about average (2 FRV).
The Brewers do have a quality bullpen with the top ERA in the league over the last month (2.22), but also 9th best estimators (3.73 FIP, 3.94 xFIP, 3.69 SIERA). BARTOLO ranks them 2nd best in the league (3.54 wFIP).
Kevin Gausman has allowed 16 runs in 28 innings as a Cub. He’s allowed 14 runs in 14 innings in three of those starts, but just two in 14 innings in the other two.
His BABIP has dropped as a Cub (.293), which is expected with the Cubs allowing a .272 mark as a team, but he’s also stranded only 66.7% of his runners with all five of his four barrels leaving the park.
Yes, you read that right. More barrels than home runs and that extra non-barreled home run was allowed away from Wrigley.
A key point is that his K-BB has risen to 19% with the Cubs, while his contact profile has remained better than average.
Gausman may have a 4.52 ERA this season, but doesn’t have a single estimator reaching four.
The projected Milwaukee lineup is a challenge, averaging a 107 wRC+ on the road, 113 wRC+ vs RHP and 102 wRC+ over the last 30 days, but the Cubs have the best defense in the league with their projected eight behind Gausman sitting at 51 FRV.
The Chicago bullpen has a 4.91 FIP, 4.33 xFIP and 4.21 SIERA since the deadline, the 22nd best mark in the league and are only a little bit better via BARTOLO’s rankings (19th with a 3.98 wFIP).
Regardless, the Brewers have about a half run pitching edge from starter through bullpens, at least without knowing which relievers will be deployed.
However, the Cubs bring all that back with perhaps the best offense in the league right now and absolutely the best defense without argument. They also gain a little bit for being at home.
The weather could be an issue here. Not only is there a threat of rain in the early forecast, but substantial disagreement between weather sources on the impact of the forecast, ranging from 10% run suppression to a 6% run boost.
Until we get more clarity on the weather, I’ll have to keep my plays here to leans. Those leans would be the Cubs and Under 8.5.
I’d rather risk missing a playable line than playing the wrong one, but will post in the app if and when these become plays with more weather clarity, but for those who want to be more aggressive, FanDuel is currently at 8.5 (-114) and most books are also below -110 on the Cubs as of this writing.
Pick: Lean Cubs 100, 0.5u | Bet to -108, Under 8.5 (-114), 0.57u | Bet through 8.5
Marlins @ Royals Picks
Straight from Saturday’s Leadoff….
I know a lot of people like to look at Sandy Alcantara’s 3.38 ERA and believe he’s back, but the truth is that his K-BB (11.6%) is only 0.2 points better than last year and his 42.7 GB% is a career worst.
True, he has gotten back to handling contact well, allowing just 5.3% Barrels/BBE with a 35.1 HardHit%, but even the 3.64 xERA that generates is a quarter run higher than actual results and also still well below his contact neutral estimators (4.37 SIERA, 4.20 xFIP).
It all rounds out to something around four. BARTOLO and I certainly agree on this.
Alcantara faced 27 Nationals, striking out just three with only 36.4% of his contact on the ground, allowing four runs.
Here, he faces a nearly fully healthy Kansas City lineup that’s been on the rise. Saturday’s projected nine average a 109 wRC+ at home, 104 wRC+ vs RHP and 116 wRC+ over the last month. Vinnie Pasquantio and Jac Caglianone are both sitting about a 180 wRC+ in since returning from injuries.
Michael Wacha’s 3.32 ERA sits below indicators ranging from a 3.97 xERA to a 4.31 dERA. That’s a tight enough range that one can be confident that’s who he’d be without the benefit of a career best .256 BABIP for any season in which he’s made more than 15 starts.
A league average pitcher, as he’s been for most of his career.
The Miami projected offense averages a 99 wRC+ on the road, 103 wRC+ vs RHP and 107 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
However, consider Wacha’s reverse split, which is even larger than usual this year:
LHBs .269 wOBA, .288 xwOBA
RHBs .340 wOBA, .337 xwOBA
He’s a difficult pitcher to project against because we don’t know which teams are sharp enough to employ RHBs against him. The Marlins may well be, but I’ll account for the uncertainty by looking for a slightly larger edge.
I have these pitchers rated very similarly and offenses nearly as similarly, giving the Royals a slight edge.
I didn’t mention defenses because both of those are above average and fairly comparable as well.
I didn’t mention bullpens because by either BARTOLO’s rankings or last 30 day estimators, both are bottom third of the league and can be avoided completely.
Having this game dead even with a small bump to the Royals for home field advantage, I see some value at any plus money F5 number down to even money.
It’s not a number a lot of books are offering, but I feel it’s worth mentioning anyway on a small slate, as it is available as of this writing on DraftKings (+105) and some prediction markets.
Pick: Royals (F5) +105, 0.5u | Bet to even
Cardinals @ Dodgers Picks
It’s no secret or debate that a healthy Tarik Skubal is a top three pitcher in this league. His 2.84 ERA aligns with estimators, none of which reach three.
It’s short and simple.
Quinn Mathews is an interesting young arm, but not nearly in the class of a Tarik Skubal.
Through four starts, he’s registered a competent 13.5 K-BB%, allowing just a single barrel with a 33.3 HardHit%.
We don’t know if any of this is sustainable yet and it’s a bit of a concern that his pitch modeling is the lower range of his indicators with a 4.43 Bot ERA and 99 Pitching+. By either measure, the command has been a bit better than the stuff.
If we go by performance, his indicators have sat around four with contact inclusive ones superior to contact neutral measurements. If we abide by projections, it’s closer to averaging four and a third runs per nine.
It’s about a run and a half starting pitching edge for the Dodgers, who also project for a 13 FRV edge and a bullpen edge that widens by BARTOLO ratings, ranking the Dodgers best in the league (3.54 wFIP) and the Cardinals 17th (3.95 wFIP), over last 30 day estimators, where the Dodgers have the Cardinals by a little more than one-third of a run in the last 30 days.
I’ve held offenses for last for a reason.
It’s no question it’s the weaker Dodger split. Even with Will Smith back, their projected lineup averages just a 103 wRC+ and .149 ISO vs LHP, though they’ve been slumping overall as well with the same lineup averaging just a 92 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
The Cardinals are banged up. Being without the their two elite glove middle infielders drops them from one of the best defenses in the league to a net negative in FRV.
However, it’s an interesting lineup against LHP. Some of that is small sample size and projections. Still, no projected right-handed Cardinal with more than 10 plate appearances against southpaws this year sits below a 120 wRC+ against them.
Even looking at BARTOLO’s projected wRC+ against LHP, it’s five points higher than the Dodgers.
It would probably be foolish to take these offensive numbers at face value. I don’t think anyone would take the St Louis lineup over the Dodger one here, but there’s a spark and with a number this high, a spark may be enough.
You have a young pitcher with some talent (45 Future Value via Fangraphs with 65 grade changeup right now) and an offense that might be a little better than they’re being credit for.
I don’t expect the Cardinals to win more than one-third of the time here, but this line is too large. Novig is currently offering 28% (+257), which would be the best line.
Pick: Cardinals +257, 0.5u | Bet to +200
Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, September 3
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Guardians -104, 0.52u | Bet to -113
- Lean Cubs 100, 0.5u | Bet to -108
- Lean Brewers/Cubs Under 8.5 (-114), 0.57u | Bet through 8.5
- Royals (F5) +105, 0.5u | Bet to even
- Cardinals +257, 0.5u | Bet to +200
