The Miami Marlins (55-55) and Houston Astros (62-50) will face off in the MLB tonight. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on SCHN.
Miami is a -130 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Houston is +110 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 8.5 total runs.
Continue below for my Astros vs Marlins predictions and MLB picks for Monday, August 4, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Astros vs Marlins Prediction
Astros vs Marlins pick: Astros Moneyline (+110)
My Astros vs Marlins best bet is on Houston moneyline, with the best line currently available at Fanatics. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Astros vs Marlins Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +110 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -130 |
Astros vs Marlins Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jason Alexander (HOU) | Stat | RHP Sandy Alcantara (MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 6-9 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 7.36/5.03 | ERA / xERA | 6.36/5.03 |
| 5.83/4.93 | FIP / xFIP | 4.49/4.50 |
| 1.83 | WHIP | 1.42 |
| 4.8% | K-BB% | 8.1% |
| 48.3% | GB% | 45.6% |
| 90 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 100 | Location+ | 99 |
Astros vs Marlins Preview, Picks
Houston enters this series after a rough road trip to Boston, where they were swept in three games (2-1, 7-3, 6-1).
Still, the Astros remain atop the AL West at 62-50, narrowly ahead of the Mariners.
Miami, meanwhile, has found its groove, winning three straight over the Yankees to improve to third in the NL East.
Sandy Alcantara gets the ball for the Marlins and enters red-hot, having thrown 14 straight scoreless innings. He'll face Jason Alexander.
All eyes will also be on Jesus Sanchez, returning to loanDepot park after being traded from Miami to Houston at the deadline.
Despite the strong Marlins pitching edge, this matchup aligns with a profitable system from our Bet Labs that favors fading Miami in series openers, especially when facing teams coming from the Eastern or Central time zones.
As Evan Abrams’ system points out: When the Marlins open a series against a team whose last game was played in the Eastern or Central time zone, the market often underrates the visiting club.
These teams arrive without the fatigue or disruption caused by cross-country travel, often performing at or above expectation—particularly in Game 1.
Because the Marlins are not typically priced as a top-tier opponent, this creates value in fading them in the series opener.
Astros vs Marlins Best Bet
- Astros ML (+110)
