Freedman’s Favorite Strikeout Prop (May 6): Will Jacob deGrom Get 9 Strikeouts?

Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

In this piece, I highlight my favorite pitcher prop for Monday, May 6.

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2019 Year-to-Date Record

703-536-40, +98.87 Units

• NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
• NBA: 347-264-7, +40.78 Units
• NHL: 66-80-7, -7.57 Units
• MLB: 44-51-12, -11.89 Units
• Golf: 9-8-2, +3.30 Units
• NASCAR: 10-17-0, -5.97 Units
• NCAAB: 125-70-12, +38.82 Units
• NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
• Exotic: 79-32-0, +30.50 Units
• Horse Racing: 1-0-0, +0.04 Units

Favorite Pitcher Prop for Monday, May 6

Please note that in some cases I might go against what’s recommended in the FantasyLabs Props Tool and the strikeout projections we have in the FantasyLabs MLB Models.

New York Mets Pitcher Jacob deGrom at San Diego Padres

• Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
• Over: 8.5 (-114)
• Under: 8.5 (-114)

This is an intriguing spot for the 2018 Cy Young Award winner. On the one hand, he's averaged only 5.5 innings per game through six starts this year. On the other hand, he has a blazing, career-high 13.4 strikeouts per nine innings.

Is his high K/9 average sustainable? Probably not, but even if he regresses toward his 2017-18 mark of 10.9, that's still an elite number.

And his 2019 performance might not be a fluke. When we look at his velocity data for this year next to his 2017-18 numbers, we can see that he's throwing harder now (per FanGraphs).

• Fastball: 96.5 vs. 95.6
• Slider: 92.7 vs. 90.2
• Curveball: 83.8 vs. 81.9

On top of that, he's throwing his fastball on a higher percentage of his pitches (58.6% vs. 53.7%).

As the velocity has increased, his control has decreased — 3.3 walks per nine innings vs. 2.3 for 2017-18 — but deGrom is aggressively attacking batters this year.

And deGrom has a favorable matchup: The projected Padres lineup has a slate-high 0.283 strikeouts per at-bat. San Diego is a strikeout-prone team.

On top of that, the Padres have the sixth-fewest runs per game at 3.89, they are implied for just 3.2 runs tonight and deGrom has an advantageous 81 Park Factor at Petco Park.

There’s little reason to think he won’t be able to pitch deep into the contest: We have him projected for a slate-high 6.7 innings vs. the Padres, as well as 9.6 strikeouts.

I’d bet over 8.5 to -140.

The Pick: Over 8.5 (-114)

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.