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KBO Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds (Sunday, June 14): Back Wiz or Lions In Youthful Pitching Matchup?

KBO Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds (Sunday, June 14): Back Wiz or Lions In Youthful Pitching Matchup? article feature image

Han Myung-Gu/Getty Images

The Hanwha Eagles may have to wait until Sunday to record their KBO-record 19th consecutive loss, surpassing the futility streak set by the Sammi Superstars (1985).

The Eagles currently trail the Doosan Bears 4-3 in the third inning of a suspended contest, which will be concluded on Sunday before their regular scheduled matchup, meaning that the Eagles can log losses No. 19 and 20 in a row within the span of a few hours.

The Kiwoom Heroes will look for a series sweep against the NC Dinos and try to pull within 4.5 games of the KBO lead, after winning 3-2 on Friday as a +210 underdog, and 18-5 on Saturday as a +165 underdog.

Naturally, the Heroes moneyline wager on Saturday was one of my few bets to lose closing line value this season, and of course, it became my first moneyline wager to win with ease in some time.

If the Bears and Heroes can sweep their respective matchups on Sunday, they could narrow the Dinos’ KBO lead down to two games heading into next week, which is remarkable considering NC’s record-setting start.

If you are looking for more information about the KBO League, check out my season primer. If you want to know more about Taiwan’s CPBL, you can find that here.

  • KBO Year to Date: 52-74 (-15.31 Units)
  • CPBL Year to Date: 34-28 (+8.04 Units)

KBO Odds, Picks, Predictions & Betting Model

Odds as of noon ET on Saturday and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions

  • Wiz moneyline: TBD
  • Lions moneyline: TBD
  • Over/under: TBD
  • Time: 4:00 a.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

Probable Pitchers: KT Wiz (Hyeong-jun So) vs. Samsung Lions (Tae-in Won)

Sunday’s featured ESPN matchup pits the struggling eighth-place KT Wiz (13-21) against the seventh-place Samsung Lions (16-19), a matchup between two teams whose run differentials (-6, and -10 respectively) suggest some positive regression; as the Wyverns (11-23, -44 runs) and Eagles (7-27, -114) are significantly off of the pace compared to the other teams in the league.

Despite their recent lull, Wiz remain just six games out of the wild card spot, and still have three-quarters of their schedule remaining to make up that ground and secure their first KBO playoff appearance — after finishing sixth, two games behind the Dinos, in 2019.

They are led by a potent offense, which has recorded a 110 wRC+, and recently welcomed the return of young star Baek-ho Kang (175 wRC+; 150 in 2019) to the middle of their lineup:

Kang Baek-ho with a solo home run in Game 1

— Dan Kurtz (@MyKBO) June 13, 2020

On the flip side, the Lions (81 wRC+) only rank ahead of the Eagles (70 wRC+) and Wyverns (80 wRC+) in terms of offensive output.

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

Eighteen-year-old Hyeong-jun So (5.16 FIP) will make his seventh 2020 start and second against the Lions on Saturday, after defeating them on May 15. This is only his second road start, however, and So’s 13:9 strikeout to walk rate over 33.2 innings pitched is a bit concerning.

But KT’s first-round pick this year is one of the more promising young pitching prospects in Korea, with advanced command and feel to both sides of the plate and a fastball that can touch 93 mph:

Twenty-year-old Tae-in Won (4.56 FIP, 4.71 in 2019) has been an above-average starter for the Lions this season, though he is coming off of least efficient outing to date (4 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 5 BB, 3 K) against the Kiwoom Heroes.

Won has displayed excellent fastball command, which he uses to set up his offspeed pitch:

Won Tae-in, Filthy 76mph Changeup…and pitching with emotion.

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 3, 2020

He’s allowed only a .287 batting average on balls in play over 33 KBO appearances (26 starts), and his 2.68 ERA (4.29 career)  is bound to regress towards his FIP (career 4.84).

I project the Wiz as 50.5% favorites for Saturday, and I would bet the Wiz to +113 (implied 47%), which is a 3.5% edge compared to my projection.

Conversely, I would look to bet the Lions at +116 (implied 46%) or better, which is also a 3.5% edge compared to my projection (49.5%). Use our betting calculator to find your edge if you have different odds.

I project the total at 12.05 runs and would bet Over 10.5 (-112) or Over 10 (-102) at a 4% edge.

See all of Sunday’s KBO and CPBL projections below, and check back later today for my picks on the Wiz-Lions game, and Sunday’s other KBO and CPBL games.

KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions Picks

  • KT Wiz +118 (1 unit)
  • KT Wiz Team Total, Over 4.5 (-123, 0.5 units)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]

Full KBO Betting Card for June 14

  • KT Wiz +118 (1 unit)
  • KT Wiz Team Total, Over 4.5 (-123, 0.5 units)
  • Lotte Giants Team Total, Over 3.5 (-119, 0.5 units)
  • SK Wyverns Team Total, Over 3.5 (-110, 0.5 units)
  • TBD

KBO Year to Date: 52-74 (-15.31 Units)

Full CPBL Betting Card for June 14

  • TBD

CPBL Year to Date: 34-28 (+8.04 Units)

Zerillo’s Full KBO + CPBL Model, June 14

Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game moneylines, over/unders, and team totals. A sample of one of the sheets is below: 

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