Yankees’ Odds of Signing Manny Machado Have Improved Drastically

Dec 29, 2018 7:59 PM EST

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Manny Machado (8).

  • With recent rumors making it seem like Manny Machado wants to sign with the Yankees, their odds of landing him have gone way up.
  • After opening at -130 a couple weeks back, they are now -442, which is a 25% increase in implied probability.
  • The Yankees are currently +700 to win the World Series, but could move to +600 or higher if they sign Machado.

Manny Machado is expected to make his free agency decision in January, but some believe he’s already made up his mind. You can include oddsmakers in that group.


With recent reports stating that Machado doesn’t want to go to Philadelphia and one reporter claiming Machado has already chosen the Yankees, the Bronx Bombers’ odds of landing the slugger have moved a tremendous amount.

After opening at -130 earlier in December, the Yankees are now -442. To the layperson, that is an implied probability swing from 56.5% to 81.5% — a solid 25% boost.

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The Yankees are +700 to win their 28th title, which is tied with the Red Sox and Astros in the American League and slightly behind the Dodgers at +600. The Dodgers had been amongst the 7-1 crew, but moved to 6-1 following their trade with the Reds.

At the time, everyone believed that trade would directly lead to Harper signing with L.A., but talks on that front have been rather quiet since. If they don’t sign Harper or make a different significant acquisition, they’ll probably drop back down a bit.

If Machado were to sign with the Yankees, you can certainly expect them to move to at least +600 and perhaps higher.

Stay tuned, as the new year is sure to bring some huge baseball news.

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