The Cleveland Guardians host the Pittsburgh Pirates in the second game of a doubleheader on July 18, 2026. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on CLEG.
The Guardians are favored by -112 on the moneyline and are +1.5 on the run line. The Pirates are -104 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find our MLB picks and Pirates vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pirates vs Guardians Prediction
- Pirates vs Guardians Pick: Under 8.5 (-115)
Our Pirates vs Guardians best bet is Under 8.5 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Guardians Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -104 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -194 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -112 |
- Pirates vs Guardians moneyline: Pirates -104, Guardians -112
- Pirates vs Guardians over/under: 8.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Pirates vs Guardians spread: Pirates -1.5 (+160), Guardians +1.5 (-194)
Pirates vs Guardians Probable Pitchers
| Braxton Ashcraft (RHP, PIT) | Stat | Logan Allen (LHP, CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | W-L | 0-0 |
| 2.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 3.49 / 3.29 | ERA / xERA | 0.00 / 3.90 |
| 2.78 / 3.54 | FIP / xFIP | 0.35 / 1.88 |
| 21.9 | K-BB% | 31.6 |
| 43.0 | GB% | 45.5 |
| .297 | BABIP | .455 |
| 105 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 106 | Location+ | 83 |
Pirates vs Guardians MLB Betting Preview
Our Bet Labs "Interleague Under Edge" system recommends the under for Game 2 of this doubleheader.
This system targets unders in interleague (non-conference) games where both teams are winning clubs, and the market sets a modest total (7–10).
The setup leverages:
- Solid teams (49–100% win rate) facing unfamiliar lineups and pitchers
- Later-season matchups (game 22+), when teams settle into pitching rhythms
- Home teams favored (moneyline -260 to -110), suggesting stronger bullpens
- Undervalued run suppression due to lack of offensive familiarity
The result: profitable unders in tighter, more disciplined matchups between quality teams with limited recent exposure to each other.
Pirates vs Guardians Pick, Betting Analysis
A line of 8.5 runs is generous for the second half of a doubleheader. If the Pirates confirm Braxton Ashcraft as their starter, all the more reason to go with the under here.
The right-hander has been rock solid this season, boasting a 1.11 WHIP to go along with a 2.78 FIP and a 3.49 ERA. He will be facing a Cleveland lineup that ranks 25th in the majors in wRC+ with a 92 rating.
Meanwhile, Logan Allen will be backed by one of the best relief corps in the league, as the Guardians bullpen ranks eighth in ERA with 3.74.
Progressive Field is a relatively fair pitching park that can heavily suppress home runs depending on wind direction, especially as the air cools down for an evening game. It ranks 20th in run production among MLB stadiums in Baseball Savant's Park Factors.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-115, FanDuel)
