The Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Angels will meet at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, California at 10:07 p.m. ET on Saturday, July 18. Our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, has locked in his top betting prediction for tonight's matchup.
Let's dive into the data-driven breakdown of his MLB prop bets and picks for Saturday, July 18.
MLB Prop Bets, Expert Picks for Saturday, July 18
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 10:07 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Tigers vs. Angels MLB Player Prop
Tarik Skubal Strikeouts
After facing potential future HOF’er (in my eyes) Troy Melton last night (who hit every rung on the ladder!!), the Angels now have to face actual future HOF’er Tarik Skubal.
Skubal missed some time with an elbow injury, but he’s actually been even better since returning.
Before the injury, he owned a 29.6% adjusted K rate (the metric I created that estimates what a pitcher’s K rate would be against a league-average lineup in a league-average park, removing the external factors that can inflate or suppress strikeouts). Since returning, that number has jumped to 33.5%.
Just like Melton last night, this is obviously a great matchup against an Angels lineup that strikes out at a high rate. But the bigger edge is the lineup construction.
I’m expecting the Angels to stack the lineup with around 8 right-handed hitters. Skubal has reverse platoon splits and has actually struck out righties at about a 6% higher rate over his career.
One of the sneaky reasons he’s so dominant is that teams have no choice but to stack righties against him anyway, yet 74% of the hitters he’s has faced this season have been right-handed. Tonight, that number could be closer to 90-100%.
I’m projecting him closer to 9.5 strikeouts and around -165 to clear 8.5 Ks. I’m also taking 10+ at +200, which is the sweet spot from an EV standpoint.
There are still a couple more rungs worth sprinkling, but the value tapers off a bit faster than it did with Melton last night.
Sean Koerner's MLB Player Prop Ladder for Saturday
- Tarik Skubal Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+108)
- Tarik Skubal 10+ Strikeouts (+200)
- Tarik Skubal 10+ Strikeouts (+370)
