The New York Mets host the Seattle Mariners on August 15, 2025. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SNY.
Find my MLB betting preview and Mariners vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Mariners vs Mets Prediction
- Mariners vs Mets picks: Under 8.5 (+100 via Fanatics)
My Mariners vs Mets best bet is Under 8.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Mets Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +159 | 8.5 -122o / 100u | +102 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -196 | 8.5 -122o / 100u | -124 |
Mariners vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Luis Castillo (SEA) | Stat | LHP Sean Manaea (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-6 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 2.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 3.19 / 4.11 | ERA /xERA | 4.33 / 3.40 |
| 3.72 / 4.12 | FIP / xFIP | 3.81 / 3.56 |
| 1.19 | WHIP | 1.11 |
| 14.5% | K-BB% | 21.1% |
| 41.4% | GB% | 38.9% |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 106 | Location+ | 99 |
The Betting Insider’s Mariners vs Mets Preview
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Castillo on Fire Since All-Star Break
Luis Castillo arrives in New York throwing like an ace, and the recent game-log receipts back it up. Since the All-Star break, he’s made five starts and worked exactly 30.0 innings with a 2.40 ERA, 27 strikeouts, just three walks, and three homers allowed. The individual lines include 7.0 IP/2 ER vs. the Rays on Aug. 8 and 7.0 IP/1 ER at Oakland on July 28; the only real blemish was a five-inning, three-earned run day vs. Milwaukee on July 23. For the season entering tonight, he’s 8–6 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 120 strikeouts.
Castillo’s arsenal remains four-seam heavy with the sinker, slider, and changeup playing off it. Statcast’s 2025 pitch usage snapshot shows ~48% four-seam, ~22% sinker, ~19% slider and ~12% changeup, a mix that helps him miss bats without giving away many free bases.
New York Mets Betting Preview: Mets In Free Fall
The Mets counter with left-hander Sean Manaea, who has worked his way back into the rotation after an IL stint earlier in the season. While his 4.33 ERA across 27 innings doesn’t leap off the page, a 3.81 FIP and a strong contact profile suggest he’s been better than the surface stats indicate. His hard-hit% sits at 33.3%, with an average exit velocity of just 87.6 mph. He hasn’t pitched deep into games yet since returning, but his stuff profile and strikeout-to-walk shape can still keep this game suppressed the first two trips through.
New York is entering this series in a full‑blown free fall. They've dropped 11 of their last 12 games, including a gutting sweep by the Brewers and a walk‑off loss in dramatic fashion. They continue to battle inconsistency, and their three stars are all in a major slump. Over the last 30 days, Soto is batting .198, Lindor is batting .217, and Alonso is batting .213. In a park already skewing toward pitchers, this is setting up as a classic low-scoring grind, not a shootout.
Mariners vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
With both teams coming from a loss, and the Mets snapping a 3+ game over streak in their series finale against the Braves, a few of the Betting Insider’s most consistent MLB systems have been triggered. Check them out below!
System 1) Home team favored and just snapped an over streak, fair weather (64% win rate, 23% ROI)
• Home team is favored up to –300
• Home team has gone over the closing total in 2 of their last 3 games
• Home team went under the closing total in their previous game
• Wind is not blowing “out”
• Average temperature below 85 degrees
• Total between 7.5 and 9
• Since 2020
System 2) Both teams off a loss, above average home teams, no heavy home dogs (62% win rate, 20% ROI)
• Both teams lost their previous game
• The home team’s moneyline is between –320 and +120
• The home team’s win percentage is at least 45%
• No more than 50% of bets on the under
• The Over/Under change from open to close is between 0 and –3
• Total between 7.5 and 9
Pick: Under 8.5 (+100 via Fanatics)
Mariners vs Mets Betting Trends
