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MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Mariners vs. Nationals: Bet This Team Total in D.C. (Wednesday, July 13)

MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Mariners vs. Nationals: Bet This Team Total in D.C. (Wednesday, July 13) article feature image
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Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Juan Soto (Nationals)

  • The Mariners take on the Nationals in the final game of their two-game set.
  • Seattle is looking at a bullpen day after Tommy Milone while Washington is sending Erick Fedde to the hill.
  • D.J. James breaks down the matchup and explains why his best bet is a certain team total under.

Mariners vs. Nationals Odds

Mariners Odds +102
Nationals Odds -120
Over/Under 9
Time 12:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Mariners manager Scott Servais mentioned that Marco Gonzales will be bumped back to start on Thursday, and the team will likely have a bullpen day with Tommy Milone as the opener.

Milone will face Erick Fedde and the Washington Nationals. Milone only has four outings this season, while Fedde (4.55 xERA against a 5.01 ERA) has not pitched well. Fedde has been slightly unlucky based on his numbers, but his stats aren’t strong enough to warrant a good outing.

Out of the other dugout, the Mariners boast one of the best bullpens in baseball lately. They own a collective 3.05 xFIP since July 13, striking out at least 30% and walking less than 7% of hitters. Milone’s xERA is 3.84, so it’s much better than Fedde’s, albeit under a much smaller sample size.

Either way, neither of these teams hit righties particularly well. In the last month, both have a sub-100 wRC+ off of them, so the play here will be taking the under for the Nationals.

It looks like this will present some value, given the volatility of a bullpen game.

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Mariners’ Bullpen Game Setting Up Nicely

Milone is a southpaw, but the handicap for this game should mainly lie under the assumption that the Mariners will be throwing a righty for the majority of the afternoon.

Milone and Ryan Borucki are the only two lefties in the Seattle bullpen. Otherwise, the Nats will obviously face a right-hander.

Against lefties, though, only Josh Bell, Juan Soto and Victor Robles have a .340+ xwOBA since July 13. This does not bode well for the rest of the lineup.

Against righties, this number jumps to five members of the Nats’ lineup over a .340 xwOBA. Either way, there’s a significant drop-off at the bottom of the lineup, which should provide the Seattle pitching staff with some automatic outs.

Only Ken Giles is on the injured list for Seattle. Funny enough, Milone is one of the only active members of the Seattle bullpen with a 4.00+ xFIP over the last month of play. Only Diego Castillo eclipses that number — other than Milone.

This should hold the latter part of the Washington order in check.


Can Nats Rely on Fedde?

Now, looking at the Seattle lineup against Fedde is tough to handicap because although he ranks in the bottom half of the league in nearly every important peripheral metric, the Mariners have not crushed right-handers of late.

Mitch Haniger, Taylor Trammell, Evan White, Tom Murphy and Kyle Lewis are on the IL, but most of these names have been mainstays on the sidelines this season.

Only Julio Rodríguez, Jesse Winker and Cal Raleigh have a .340+ xwOBA over the past month. This is not nearly enough to typically handle a righty, but Fedde is so unpredictable.

However, the Nats do rank dead-last in xFIP out of the ‘pen. They have multiple injuries contributing to these performances. They have a few solid pieces — like Andres Machado and Jordan Weems — but the rest are lackluster.

Mariners-Nationals Pick

With the Nationals’ poor-hitting at the bottom of the lineup, playing the under is the right call, especially against one of the best bullpens in baseball.

If Seattle can keep Bell and Soto in check, the rest of the lineup is toast.

Take the Washington under at 4 (-115), and play this to 3.5 (-120).

Milone won’t pitch the bulk of this game, but given how the Nats are hitting lefties even worse than righties lately, he and Borucki could be valuable options for Servais.

Pick: Washington Nationals u4 (-115) | play to 3.5 (-120)

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